Wednesday 10 July 2013

2:10 Newmarket (11th July) Free Horse Racing Tips

The July Stakes (Group 2) for colts & geldings over 6f on good to firm ground. Eleven two-year-olds take part, all raced, winners bar one horse who has finished runner-up twice. A first prize of over £45,000 sees a trio of juveniles head straight here from Royal Ascot. Added to this a number of up-and-coming talents who will be hoping they can make a name for themselves. 

Sir John Hawkins sets the standard on form after finishing third at Royal Ascot when competing in the Coventry Stakes (Group 2) over 6f. This Irish raider was fancied to go well that day and Ryan Moore keeps the ride for Michael Tabor's juvenile's, trained by Aidan O'Brien. Their stable mate - War Command - won that contest impressively. This may have been a reflection on those in behind: fair horses without star quality. It will be interesting to see whether he can take this race. 

Jallota finished 5th in the Coventry and looks held by the above mentioned. In ways the proximity of Mick Channon's bay colt gives hope to a few of these have have direct form lines. 

Kevin Ryan fields Astaire who ground out a win when making his debut at York. Jallota run well that day in third place. This son of Intense Focus was a £70,000 breeze-up purchase, so he was wiser than not for his racecourse bow. However, there is likely to be further improvement from this April foal. Ryan has been patient with this colt as connections considered Royal Ascot holding an entry for the Coventry Stakes (Group 2). On the exchanges, this bay colt is fancied in the betting. As with many debut winners, it is difficult to assess their potential or future achievements. It is best to appraise horses on proven form rather than pie in the sky. Most do not come close to such lofty aspirations of the mind. It would be fair to say he should hold Jallota. But whether his form merits being such a short price brings some doubt. Improvement could well be on the cards but more will be needed today.

Others horses fitting a similar profile with one win from one outing are Figure Of Speech and Canyari

The former trained by Saeed Bin Suroor won well over course and distance, which is a plus at  this higher level. The stable have a wealth of talents and I respects their decisions and for this to be the only horse entered for this contest could be a pointer in itself. Figure Of Speech won his maiden in good style, leaving Whaleweigh Station struggling up the hill. He holds the aces over that individual. Much more is needed but the reputation of the stable brings this bay colt into the reckoning.

Canyari hails from Richard Fahey's stable which has a powerful string of two-year-olds. There was much to like about the way punished Rising Legend by five lengths on debut in a small race. This son of Dandy Man is best judged by the success of the youngster he defeated and that colt has won at Stakes class and far from disgraced when contesting the Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) at Royal Ascot. In truth, the drop down to the minimum trip may not have been in his favour. Canyari looks to have potential and connections will be hopeful. 

Richard Hannon has two representatives in Anjaal and Brown Sugar. 

Anjaal disappointed on debut when starting favourite. He was very well backed at Beverley on his second start and connections must have been pretty sure of s bomb-proof victory that day. He trotted up. This 105,000gns yearling purchase is also entered for the Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2). The form of that victory amounts to little but full of promise. This step up in distance is a positive. The stable won this race last year for Hamdan Al Maktoum. A horse which is probably much better than we have seen so far. 

Brown Sugar is a horse that catches my eye and could make a fair each way bet. This son  of Tamayuz won in style when taking apart a maiden at Salisbury. However, it was his debut over course and distance which really impressed. It is intriguing to consider whether this bay colt was a surprise when runner-up on his race course bow or just priced at huge odds because he was viewed as second string. I would consider the latter. Brown Sugar finished with zeal and would have won impressively if more experienced. He was catching Jallota fast. This will be no easy feat for any horse stepping up in grade but I would be tempted to have a few pounds each way on this colt, especially if available at double figures on the exchanges.  

Of the others Intermath won on his first start and then unseated his rider when jumping a path at Salisbury. Connections deserve an ounce of luck after that unfortunate episode but he looks to have a stiff task and best watched. 

Bahamian Heights, Master Carpenter & Whaleweigh Station all need to improve markedly. 

Conclusion: In truth, these contests are difficult to assess. So many horses have displayed sparkling victories but appreciating their ability is no easy task. Sir John Hawkins has the most proven form although he didn't leave Jallota trailing in his wake and that could mean this race is a little more open that some would imagine. Brown Sugar showed real vim on debut and that performance stuck in my mind. How far could he beat Jallota now? I think he will beat Channon's juvenile with ease and that form could be enough to have fair win and place claims. A tricky race.