Ashurstwood Maiden Stakes over 5f on standard going. Eight two-year-olds make their debut, a colt and gelding against a field of fillies. A predictable mix of early-season trainers and a cheap bunch considering this is a maiden.
Not the easiest of races to assess and the betting will be a significant pointer.
Bill Turner has started the Flat season with a bang after Mick's Yer Man ran out an easy winner of the Brocklesby Stakes. This February foal - a son of Byron - was a cheap yearling purchase at 3,500gns. It is worth noting that although Turner is known as a two-year-old trainer he doesn't feature the best win rate with his debutantes. The Brocklesby is a race he targets with his better if not best juvenile and that impressive win could well result in this bay colt being priced on the short side. If betting on El Duque, I would be tempted to wait until near the off because if this is one of his lesser light there could be a marked drift in the betting. Ryan While takes off a good few pounds and with mostly fillies in opposition it brings more confidence but I would rather take a watching brief with fears that the buzz surrounding Mick's Yer Man's victory may equate to poor value.
Hedy is a chestnut daughter of Winker Watson, who was a precocious juvenile, when trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam. The mare enjoyed a greater trip which may suggest this youngster will be better over further. The betting is particularly important to this stable and the majority of their winning juveniles are fancied to go well. Interestingly, they do not feature as high a strike rate as pundits imagine. However, of all the trainers in this race, this horse would be the statistical choice. If this April foal was a heavily backed it would give further hope.
David Evans fields a couple of runners in the shape of Smugglers Gold & Intense Feeling. He is likely to have a fair idea of their standing after Vodka Time finished second in the Brocklesby. It is worth noting that Smugglers Gold was entered to run in the Brocklesby but takes this route. In past years, this has often been a fair indicator to ability. This gelding was a relatively cheap yearling purchase, although the owner had some success with Jack My Boy a few years back. The stable don't have the best strike rate at this course and they can be a difficult outfit to judge. A low draw is a positive.
On jockey bookings Intense Feeling looks to be seconds string. However, it is worth keeping an eye on the betting as this stable are canny and money talks. If significantly backed, take note.
A similar comment can be made for Jo Hughes representatives. At present, Diamond Lady and Marilyn Marquessa are unfancied on the betting exchanges. Money talks with this stable and if well backed it would be a positive.
Outback Lover was an incredibly cheap purchase at £500. This daughter of Bushranger is out of a once-raced winning mare. The stable do not feature the best strike rate on debut although they do have the odd speculative priced debutante, so it's not beyond the realms. Probably best watched.
M'Selle is the most expensive yearling purchase in the field at 19,000euros, bought by Ron Harris, from Goffs. This bay filly is a daughter of Elnadim out of a Listed-placed mare. The stable often struggle to win on debut although Mrs Brown's Boys ran out an easy winner on his first start last season. A wide draw on this turning course is far from ideal and it would be enough of a concern to put me off betting.
Conclusion: A difficult race to assess with ifs and buts about most of these. The betting is likely to be the best guide. If fancied in the betting, Hedy has the strongest claims from a statistical point of view. With Bill Turner's first runner winning the Brocklesby in stylish fashion, I would have slight concerns that El Duque may be poor value. I would definitely wait for the betting to settle if making a wager. The stable do not feature the greatest strike rate with their debutantes, which tempers enthusiasm. Smugglers Gold catches the eye being entered for the Brocklesby. However, I find the Evans stable a law unto themselves and difficult to judge. At this early stage of the season, I would have to take a watching brief.
