Thursday 6 December 2012

12:20 Lingfield (Friday, 7th December) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 1m. A field of eleven juveniles, four with experience, and a couple with form against a number of debutantes from leading stables. Fast Pace is owned by Prince Khalid Abdullah, racing in what have been emotively called the Frankel colours. This home bred daughter of Observatory is out of a multiple-winning mare who was very consistent. In fact, she was never placed worse than fourth in eight starts. Fast Pace ran at Kempton on debut over one mile when priced at huge odds. Amanda Perrett continues this noble relationship which was established by her father - Guy Harwood - in those halcyon days which bring

reminders of the exceptional Dancing Brave. Fast Pace may have been an outsider that day but she showed much more promise than many anticipated. The stable feature a poor strike rate with two-year-olds on their race course bow although they usually find a few winners each season. This chestnut filly travelled well and may have been placed if not suffering interference in the closing stages. That initial promise - with improvement on the cards - must be tempered as the form may have limitations. It is slightly concerning that the third has since been beaten in a selling stakes. The betting is the best guide. Most of their juveniles run well second start when strong in the market. A tricky horse to assess but statics suggest she will be placed.

Paul Cole is a supreme trainer who is as honest is the day is long. I would recommend his blog to all readers because his assessments are spot on. Serenata showed next to no ability on her first two starts when priced at fantastic odds. She finished a gallant second at Warwick over 7f on soft ground. However, the betting suggested little was expected and it  would be wise to consider that was a moderate event bar the easy winner. Unless that last start was a revelation, this daughter of Oratorio is best watched.

Two others with previous experience, Portrait & Sweet As Honey, will be wiser than most but need substantial improve to figure. 

By all accounts this looks an open race and for that reason alone the debutantes may have a fighting chance. The betting will be key to their hopes.

John Gosden unleashed a talented debutante in the shape of Khobaraa and the stable have the class to add to that tally. Gertrude Versed is an early foal out of a winning mare. This daughter of Manduro is a home bred which brings slight reservations. They can be a little slow to come to hand but it would speak well if she was strongly fancied in the betting. The booking of Marc Halford may be a negative. The stable feature a good strike rate with juveniles priced 13/2 & less on debut. If priced 11/4 & less I would back this bay to win. At present, it is difficult to assess whether this filly is fancied in the betting but her chances are most likely dependent on this factor.

Pearla comes from William Haggis' yard, who has a decent win rate with his debutantes compared to many of these. This daughter of Dalakhani is bred to need a trip and looks weak in the betting on the exchanges at present. However, if priced 13/2 & less I would consider this filly to have fair win and place claims. 

The problem with a number of the other debutantes is that although most hail from fashionable stables they often struggle to win at the first time of asking.

Andrew Balding is one of my favourite trainers but his newcomers can vary markedly. Debdebdeb is a home bred daughter of Teofilo from a decent family. The stable have fair each way claims if starting single figure prices but the majority of their winners are priced 7/1 & less. On balance, I would take a watching brief unless falling within this price range.

Another trainer who I have great reservations on debut is David Lanigan. Nur Juhan was an expensive yearling purchase at 180,000gns. B E Nielsen has a number of costly buys with this stable. However, the strike rate for their debutantes doesn't inspire confidence and even if backed to relatively short odds is probably best watched. 

Soryah was an expensive yearling purchase at 110,000gns. Luca Cumani is another trainer who can be difficult to call with two-year-olds making their first start. This daughter of Shamardal has place claims if priced in single figures but the odds are stacked against her if weak in the betting. 

Mesmerized is a daughter of Duke Of Marmalde, trained by Marco Botti. I always keep an eye on juveniles owned by Immobiliare Casa Paola because they seem quite selective in their purchases. In general, the two-year-olds improve for their run and don't feature the best strike rate even when relatively fancied. She could sneak into a place if backed but I often find this stable difficult to call.

It is great to see Conrad Allen back in the training ranks. He knows what it takes to train a two-year-old winner. Azma was purchased by Allen at the breeze-up sales and may have a hope at speculative odds. The stable are not afraid to put the money down so perhaps worthy of an anticipatory gamble if available at huge odds.  

Conclusion: A tricky race. Fast Pace sets the standard after a promising debut and guaranteed improvement. The stable feature a fair win and place rate with fancied juveniles on their second start. However, the form of that initial start is difficult to assess and the fact the third has subsequently been beaten in plating class doesn't read well. A horse I would rather watch at short odds and learn a little more. Serenata is a difficult horse to assess after two poor runs then runner-up at huge odds. That looked a moderate race and if weak in the betting it would suggest little is expected. The debutantes are best judged on betting. Gertrude Versed, Pearla & Debdebdeb would have each way claims if priced 13/2 & less SP. While Soryah & Mesmerized have a fighting chance if priced in single figures. Nur Jahan has been backed on the exchanges (Thursday evening). I wouldn't be tempted to back this horse as the stable struggle to win with juveniles on their racecourse bow. Azma may go well at a price. Beyond the favourite I would assess the debutantes on the betting guides as indicated.