Thursday 8 November 2012

1:10 Lingfield (8th November) Free Horse Racing Tips

The second division of this Maiden Auction Stakes over 1m. 

Quite an intriguing race with a few juveniles looking to go well on their second starts.

Aussie Lyrics was sent off a huge priced on debut at Leicester when an 80/1 shot. This grey colt, a son of Aussie Rules, looks to be a bargain buy at the breeze-up sales for just 22,000euros. George Baker was in fine spirits when he chatted to seasoned pundit Jim McGrath on ATR as he is a part owner of this April foal. By all accounts the general assessment was that their charge had next to no hope. However, he ran a superb race, making up for a slow start, holding every chance at the two pole only fading in the closing stages. To finish less than two lengths behind Pythagorean suggest a win shouldn't be such a surprise. George Baker doesn't feature the best win rate at this course but from a statistical point of view they often go very well on their second start when priced 13/2 & less. From a low draw this colt should go well especially if substantially backed.

Baker has a form line with Ed Dunlop's Lucky Mountain through Nenge Mboko, who was just over two lengths ahead when running over this course at 7f. This son of Mount Nelson is owned by Mrs Roy, racing in the familiar lilac silks. This youngster cost £20,000 at the breeze-up sales. There was a lot to like about that effort. Very few of Dunlop's juveniles win on debut when priced at fancy odds and they often improve for the debut. Lucky Mountain ran on well suggesting this extra furlong will suit. The stable feature a very good strike rate with their fancied juveniles second time out. They feature a good win rate at this course and Buick a worthy jockey. A big run should be expected.

David's Secret -trained by Hughie Morrison - made his third start when just heading Lucky Mountain. This youngster should be respected. However, I would favour Ed Dunlop's representative.

John Best has had a quiet season with his two-year-olds and must have been rather disappointed with this season. *Zhuba hasn't been seen since mid June but was pretty fancied in the betting, which does give some hope of improvement. The form of that race has been franked on a number of occasions. You have to consider there has been an issue with being on the sidelines. The trainer - like a few in this field - has a much greater strike rate with juveniles on their second start. However, I wouldn't take an interest unless backed to 13/2 & less.

Paddy's Saltantes progressed from a couple of average races when finishing fourth, third start, and not far from winning. That was a pretty restricted race, which does bring concerns. This race is likely to be stronger. 

Richard Hannon wouldn't train too many juveniles with the price tag of 800gns but that is the case with Aegean Whisper. This daughter of Piccolo is a difficult horse to assess. On the one hand you would have to consider she is limited but on the over side of the coin it seems strange that they would run a horse this late in the season if hopeless. I find the stable difficult to assess with debutantes and would simply suggest the shorter the price the greater the chance.  

Booktheband needs to improve hugely on a disappointing debut. Best watched. 

Candyman Can is related to a fair juvenile in Paladin. However, the stable have a poor win rate with debutantes and their juveniles are generally limited. 

Paul D'Arcy is a trainer I have a lot of time for and a wonder with his two-year-olds. Jd Rockefeller is already a gelding and a cheap purchase at 1,000gns. The stable have a poor win rate on debut and best watched unless substantially backed. Money would be a positive but I would still rather take a watching brief against a few fair sorts at this grade.

Conclusion: Two horses make most appeal: Aussie Lyrics & Lucky Mountain. Both deserve respect and if priced 13/2 & less have strong claims. I often find that Bakers' two-year-olds are all or nothing. For that reason I would be tempted to go for a straight win if within this betting guide. Lucky Mountain doesn't figure so highly from a statistical point. This chestnut son of Mount Nelson could improve a good deal for that initial effort and the stable go well at this course. Both are strong candidates. Zhuba is best judged by the betting. If well backed it would be a positive and certainly give greater confidence. The others are best watched.