Wednesday 29 August 2012

7:20 Kempton (30th August) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 7f.

Fourteen runners predominantly colts & two fillies. The majority of the field have races with a few talented juveniles on show.

Intimidate is progressing for Jeremy Noseda. This son of Royal Applause was too inexperienced to do himself justice over 6f at Leicester when behind Artigiano who routed the field with an impressive victory. The starting price that day suggested he wasn't expected to shine although he ran on with purpose indicating a greater trip would be more suiting. That certainly looked to be true when well backed at Newbury. The eventual winner, Glean, and this youngster had the rest of the field toiling by halfway. In truth, you have to question whether those in behind were the most talented bunch. However, there was a lot to like about Noseda's charge, who didn't do much wrong apart from bump into an equally fair juvenile. A fighting chance although a wide draw is likely to force Jimmy Fortune to make a bold bid from the stalls.

Grand Denial finished second on his debut over 6f at Newbury. Clive Cox has a number of talented juveniles in his string and this son of Thousand Words was quite well backed. This bay colt ran on well in the closing stages but never looked like pegging back the easy winner who drifted markedly in the betting. This extra furlong is bound to help. That may have been no more than an average maiden. The stable feature a fair win and place rate with juveniles priced 13/2 & less on their second start. A cheap yearling purchase but a horse to be respected over this trip and especially so if backed.

Another cheap yearling purchase was Forceful Flame. Robert Eddery is a talented trainer and I was interested to see this chestnut colt well backed on debut at Yarmouth. Clearly something went amiss that day because he ran no race and virtually tailed off. However, I gave this son of Assertive a shout at odds of 50/1 when making his return at Newmarket. There was a lot to like about that performance - travelling well for most of the race belying those fantastic odds. He weakened in the final furlong to be nabbed for a place. He may need to improve from that start to figure here but looks the type to sit handy if not lead. Perhaps best watched but if well backed I would take note.

Baltic Knight isn't best drawn but could show improvement with this step up in distance. This 50,000gns purchase - owned by Thurloe Thoroughbreds - was one of three juveniles fielded by Hannon at Newbury, a race won by Derwent.  The form of that race has taken a few knocks of late so it may pay to tread careful and I would prefer a watching brief from this unfavourable draw.

To add to the competitive nature of this race Roger Varian has Mishaal returning after a satisfactory debut when racing mid-month at Lingfield over today's trip. This chestnut gelding looked quite inexperience on that turning track when finishing fourth behind a fair winner. The second has since proven victorious when stepping up in distance at Beverley. A wide draw in stall fourteen makes life difficult and he wouldn't want to show signs of inexperience today. I would have to take a watching brief.

Canadian Run has form a line with Mishaal through Labienus on their Lingfield running. Both horses were making their debut against Lanigan's youngster who finished second behind Richard Hannon's comfortable winner Great Run. Robert Mills is a trainer to be respected on the all-weather as he has a fine record. His colt was put in his place by another Hannon juvenile winner (Rising Legend) when beaten quite easily next start. From a low draw it will be interesting to see whether Donohoe makes a bold bid from the front. It could well be a positive move although he did take a keen hold at Brighton so connections may feel it is wise to get some cover. 

The unraced juveniles will need to be pretty smart to pose a problem for the more experienced in this field and best watched. Kastini hails from a trainer who can go well at speculative prices on debut but this looks a stiff task. 

Conclusion: A trappy affair with a number of juveniles showing form but difficult to assess. Intimidate looks progressive and should go well. He went clear of the third placed at Newbury and any other day of the week would have won in effortless style. He looks the horse to beat. A few of the major contenders are not best drawn which detracts from their chances. Baltic Knight and Mishaal will need an ounce of luck from wide births and any problems would put pay to hopes of winning. I would have to take a watching brief with this pair. Forceful Flame is likely to make a bold show and may find this course a little easier to last home than Newmarket. If backed, I would give this juvenile place claims. He looks the type to touch shorter odds in-running. Canadian Run is another who should be in the mix. Robert Mills does well with his two-year-olds on the all-weather and one to respect. While Grand Denial has fair win and place claims if priced 13/2 & less SP. A watching race for me.