Wednesday 6 June 2012

2:00 Hamilton (7th June) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 6f 5y on good to firm ground.

Eight runners, including two debutantes, a couple of fair form horses.

This looks an outstanding chance for Mandy Layla to get off the mark. Bryan Smart's two-year-olds have been in good form and this daughter of Excellent Art ran in what looks to be a competitive race on debut at Haydock over 6f, finishing fourth to Morawij. A £30,000 breeze-up purchase racing in the familiar grey silks of Dr Marwan Koukash. The fifth horse, Master Of War, has franked the form by winning on his second start although it is most likely Hannon's youngster improved a good deal for that initial start. This chestnut filly carries more weight than some of her counterparts but these race types are generally limited affairs, best based on ability rather than pounds in hand. It will take a decent horse to beat Mandy Layla and if there is a little meat on the bone worth a bet.

George Foster is a talented trainer who has the knack of springing a surprise with big priced winners. Pastoral Prey was relatively fancied on debut but disappointed in last place. He was on his game when running superbly at odds of 50/1 when behind Sir Mark Prescott's Liber. In fairness, he offered little opposition, but as the above mentioned ran out a respectable third in the Woodcote Stakes (Listed) it puts that performance into context. It is difficult to assess the merit of this bay colt but he certainly has an element of pace and may have place claims.

Another form horse who is probably a little better than she looks is Someone's Darling. This bay filly, a daughter of Jeremy, has been busy running five times to date. It is surprising that she hasn't hit the frame but that isn't due to a lack of ability - just stiff opposition and one disappointing effort. The form of her fifth to Reckless Abandon suggests she can win at this grade. Jim Goldie is a canny trainer and I'm sure he would have thought a small race would have come her way by now. Her last effort behind Party Royal was fair although I'm not sure six furlongs is quite as suiting as 5f. I would rather a horse finish a race than struggling to hit the line. After so many losses punters are likely to give her a wide birth if fear of regression. I can see her running a fair race but if Mandy Layla is useful she will not win. At respectable odds she may get a place.

BeadleBayan Kasirga need to improve and would need to be backed to offer some promise.

Of the debutantes, Tough Lady represents Mark Johnston's stable. This daughter of Iffraaj cost 12,000gns and owned by Jabar Abdullah. I always find the Johnston debutantes difficult to assess. I know I must sound like a stuck record but his juveniles are either impressive winners or disappointing losers. I would take a watching brief.

David Barron has been in great form with his recent two-year-olds. In fact, Ahern & Cosmic Chatter - especially the former - could be making their way to Royal Ascot. Whether Bernardino - a gelding by Bertolini - can achieve any great level of ability is another matter. If his £800 price tag is anything to go by it would seem unlikely. The betting is the best guide to this ones chances and if priced 13/2 & less may have a fighting chance.

Conclusion: Mandy Layla must take some beating. These weighted auction races are usually limited affairs and most of the opposition will flounder. It wouldn't be a surprise to see her backed to odds on favourite. The horse to beat. The debutantes have a lot to prove and I would have to take a watching brief. Pastoral Prey is difficult to assess but certainly has some pace. I can't see her lowering the colours of the favourite but I would be careful not to disregard her completely. I would fancy the chances of Someone's Darling hitting the frame if this was 5f and she may well achieve that goal over six. Jim Goldie's youngster is better than she looks and if the favoruite disappoints could be a cracking each way bet at speculative odds. On balance, she may be worth a small place bet but there is always a fear she may regress at some point. Mandy Layla is a decent bet and if fair odds are available could be a very good bet indeed.