Wednesday 2 May 2012

5:05 Brighton (3rd May) Free Horse Racing Tips

A EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f 59y on good to soft ground.

Quite an interesting race. 

Mark Jonhston's two-year-olds have been in fighting form. With Bailey's Jubilee & Storm Moon the best juveniles seen this season, Heavy Metal needs to prove his Brocklesby running to be all wrong. This bay colt by Exceed And Excel is a good-looking sort with size and scope to progress with racing. The mare was an unbeaten Group 1 winning two-year-old in South Africa. Johnston's first runner of the juvenile season, he showed good pace before fading tamely. Whether he run his race only time will tell. However, he has since been entered for another Stakes race and the Keenland Phoenix Stakes (Group 1). This colt is likely to be the stand out in the paddock. A difficult juvenile to assess but there is evidence to suggest we could see a different horse today.

Golac has course and distance form but proved a costly loser for odds on backers after being put firmly in his place by Tobias Cole's debutante winner All On Red. This son of Pastoral Pursuits finished second on his race course bow behind another Channon juvenile Effie B. A cheap buy at £7,500, it is difficult to asses the form of this juvenile and he is probably weaker than stronger. It certainly makes me wonder why Channon has entered this colt for a couple of Selling races. It isn't always a negative but it would be enough to make me look elsewhere.

Captain Blue has been similarly entered for a Selling race. This home bred is out of a durable if limited mare who won five times in her career. I would have to favour Lady Phill who finished behind Golac on debut. This daughter of Avonbridge is not a bad looker and relatively fancied on debut. A full-sister to The Lord, in the ownership of Monica Teversham, out of a precocious mare trained by Turner called Lady Filly. It is intriguing that this youngster has been entered to run at Stakes class, which indicates better things to come. The stable have a respectable win and place rate with their fancied juveniles on their second start. 

John Gallagher is a capable trainer but Ladweb needs to improve a good deal from his debut at Folkestone. That was a particularly moderate race. This son of Bertolini is out of a sprinting mare but best watched.

Fiducia hails from Simon Dow's stable. This bay filly cost 14,000gns at the yearling sales and started her career in a small race at Lingfield. By all accounts it was a moderate event won by Bill Turner's Caught Napping. Turner has proved a very good judge when using these form lines to assess his chances and reason why money for Lady Phill would be a positive. This daughter of Lawman is out of a winning mare, but breeding suggests a stiffer test of stamina may be more suiting. Perhaps these testing conditions will be to her liking. It is intriguing that Seb Sanders comes to Brighton for this solitary ride. 

Eve Johnson Houghton doesn't feature the best win rate with her debutantes but Must Be Me could be an interesting juvenile. A bay filly by Trade Fair, she is out of a former stable talent Roodeye who lost by a head on debut and ran creditably in the Molecomb Stakes (Group 3). It is encouraging that Houghton has entered this March filly in a Stakes race. 

Conclusion: An intriguing race in its own way. I would have to take a wide berth of Golac simply because the Selling race entry looks a negative. A similar quote can be made for Captain Blue. Heavy Metal is a difficult horse to assess but recent flashy entries certainly add to the hope there is better to be seen than the Brocklesby disappointment. This youngster will most likely be the paddock pick, a good, strong two-year-old. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him go well. The betting could be significant for Lady Phill. Turner knows where he stands with plenty of juvenile winners and she has breeding to be a speedy girl. A Stakes entry is encouraging and she will be wiser for that first effort and could well reverse form with Golac. One for the short list. Turner should know where he stands with Fiducia who finished behind Caught Napping. A counter offer is that Dow's runner is the only ride for Seb Sanders. Must Be Me could be a talent. The mare was a talent and a Stakes entry does bring hope that she's been showing promise on the gallops. The downside is that the stable have a poor win rate on debut although a good youngster can always be an exception to the rule.