Wednesday 2 November 2011

2:00 Nottingham (2nd November) Horse Racing Tips/Result

A Maiden Stakes over 1m 75y on soft ground. A big field featuring inexperienced two-year-olds. Many of these juveniles have shown promise although - to some extent - are difficult to assess. Cubanita ran well on debut, when running-on at the finish, but easily beaten by the talented Bonfire. This chestnut filly, a daughter of Selkirk, was quite inexperienced but made eye-catching progress in the final furlong. Crowley gave her a considerate ride and she could well improve a good deal for that initial start. 

Anomaly is a good-looking colt who was clearly inexperienced on that first start at Newmarket. Godolphin were represented by three juveniles that day and there was a lot to like about this son of Pivotal. Taking a line through Engrossing, Teide Peak and Poetic Power are held. A leading chance.

Lelaps is quite an interesting colt for Marco Botti. This son of Mr Greeley was slow away on debut but showed a determined attitude, losing narrowly with the first three clear of the field. He was fancied in the betting that day and clearly fit. After coping with heavy ground these testing conditions shouldn't pose a problem although a wide draw is not ideal. I would suspect this two-year-old is a fair juvenile and with that experience should have decent win and place claims.

Of the form horses, Teide Park is likely to make a bold show but vulnerable in the final furlong. On their recent Nottingham running Poetic Power would seem to have little hope of winning. However, this 70,000gns foal may be worth a second chance. Elsworth's bay colt is a good-looking horse, and this son of Dylan Thomas was strongly fancied in the betting. After showing good pace, he faded in the final two furlongs but wasn't pressed when all chance had gone. That could have been a significant betting guide and one which could suggests more is expected today. At speculative odds Poetic Power could run a big race and although looking quite improbable may reverse the form with Johnston's two-year-old. 

Of the debutantes, the betting is the best guide to their respective chances. The major stables are best when priced 13/2 & less. Morant Bay - trained by Sir Henry Cecil - isn't overly fancied in the betting but the stable's juveniles have been running well at big odds in recent weeks which suggests the string is in good form. He may have claims.

Conclusion: A tough race to call. Lelaps, Cubanita & Anomaly have shown promise and by all account hold fair each way claims. I liked the dogged attitude of Lelaps although he was fit and ready for his debut run which may explain that steely character. Anomaly and particularly Cubanita should improve for that initial start. Poetic Power looks to have little chance after being comprehensively beaten by Teide Park. However, he was strongly fancied on debut which suggests to me this youngster has ability. At speculative odds he could hit the frame.

HCE: ''A nice performance from Cubanita who has franked that Salisbury form and likely to progress to a higher level. Anomaly done little wrong in second, while Poetic Power showed that first running to be all wrong with a creditable third. Lelaps was an HCE Regular tip but never looked a live chance after being slowly into stride in a race it paid to be with the lead. A poor effort in 5th.''