Saturday 5 November 2011

12:15 Doncaster (5th November) Horse Racing Tips/Result

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f on good to soft ground. Quite an open race if the betting on the exchanges is anything to go by. Jellicle has shown a level of ability but was no match for the talented Diala last time. If this race turns out to be no more than an average, this daughter of Successful Appeal may have claims but looks vulnerable. A drop down to 6f may help but I would look elsewhere.

Tango Sky is quite a good-looking gelding. His has had a very disrupted season with length periods between both starts. After a considerate debut he ran well at Chepstow when finishing second. In ways that was a difficult race to assess because the favourite disappointed and the winner won in fair style. Crolwey takes the ride rather than Pearl Frost, so that is encouraging. Beckett's juveniles have been in good form of late and one for the short list if not a touch tricky to judge.

A couple of newcomers figure high in the betting: Scarabocia & Mrs Huffey

The former trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam is worthy of respect. He is a fascinating handler and one of very few who actually feature better statistics with juveniles racing on their debut than their second start. That factor alone tells the story that most of his two-year-olds are fit and ready to run a big race. This son of Shamdardal cost 40,000gns as a foal. If priced 13/2 & less, this colt has fair win and place claims.

Mrs Huffey has been backed on the exchanges. A fair percentage of his juveniles are priced 13/2 & less when making their race course bow, featuring a respectable win rate but not outstanding. This daughter of Acclamation cost 32,000gns and the dam is a full sister to Shining Hour, a winner of the Queen Mary. It is interesting that the money has come for this filly although I would rather take a watching brief.

Of the others, Chart may be worth a second look at huge odds. William Jarvis' colt is a good-looking two-year-old, who was well backed in a poor race on debut. He was very inexperienced which put pay to any hopes and finished seventh of seven. On balance, this relatively cheap purchase didn't show any ability but even the best of horses can disappoint on debut and that betting guide could well be a significant pointer. Stepping up to 6f - in an open race - it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see a much better performance today. 

Tartiflette would have strong win and place claims if backed to 13/2 & less but that would seem unlikely.

Conclusion: An open race. It wouldn't be a surprise to see a debutant win against a few experienced horses who have shown no more than average ability. Scarabocia would have win and place claims if priced 13/2 & less. Tango Sky has each way claims, while Chart may go well at speculative odds.

HCE: Not the easiest of races to assess and Ed McMahon finished the Flat turf season in sparkling form with Tartiflette progressing from a Windsor debut to win in determined style. Pacific Heights was trained by Aiden O'Brien but Tim Pitt looks to have got hold of a fair juvenile. This youngster was well backed and ran a cracking race, losing by a head. Jellicle finished third.''