Saturday 19 November 2011

12:10 Lingfield (19th November) Horse Racing Tips/Result

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f. Blanc De Chine has become an expensive horse to follow. A beaten favourite on three of her six starts, finishing second on four occasions in entirety. Makin's filly, a grey daughter of Dark Angel, has gone close to winning on her last two starts although both attempts give mixed messages. She was in receipt of a lot of weight when narrowly foiled by Ballesteros.

Then looked to have the edge at Windsor when caught by Sandfrankskipsgo in the closing stages. That race may have been weak because bar the first and second the rest of the opposition looked regressive. Perhaps the best judge of her ability is when second to Beau Mistral.That sets, at best, an average standard. However, even though I would have reservations about this filly at short odds in the context of this poor race she might be able to scrape a win. Probably her greatest asset is the fact she is a nature 5f sprinter, which might not be the case for some of the major fancies. Makin's representative will have the pace to trouble most of the opposition to a point they could be outpaced. However, that strength may be her weakness because she looks prone to stopping in the closing stages. The type to get beaten after touching huge odds on? Perhaps. Even in this lowly affair I would have to take a watching brief or most likely lay her in-running at huge odds-on and hope the tortoise catches the hare.

The major opponent is Tango Sky. This attractive bay gelding, a son of Namid, has enough ability to win a race of this nature. An imposing horse, he will make a number of these look quite small and feeble. Running at Doncaster last time, he showed a fair level of form and is progressing with racing. If this was 6f I would be quite confident he would win. The worry is whether this minimum trip is ideal. Tango Sky might have the pace to sit in a handy position and to be fair it wouldn't be a bad thing to be a little off the pace. However, it would be a major concern if he was completely outpaced. That is the gamble. On balance, I would conclude that he will have just enough pace to keep in contention and should finish his race well. The most likely winner but could touch much bigger odds in-running if Blanc De Chine storms clear in the early stages.

The only other horse with a glimmer of ability is Love Island. Richard Whitaker is a canny trainer and it often takes his juveniles a couple of races to hit their peak, so one to respect. This half-sister to Rio Sands and Desert Falls could be the dark horse of the race.

Conclusion: A funny old race. We know Blanc De Chine is the hare, and I for one would be looking to find a tortoise to beat her today. Tango Sky will win a race or two but the thorn in the side is whether this 5f will suit or not. There is a worry he will be completely outpaced. I would just give him the benefit of the doubt. If betting, I can see much bigger odds being available in-running. Love Island could well be in with a chance as a couple of the family have won on the all-weather and Whitaker's juveniles often progressive with racing and he could be primed today.

HCE: ''Tango Sky was always within reach of Blanc De Chine, which never bode well for Makin's filly who was overhauled in the closing stages. Love Island looked to pose a threat for a stride or two but finished third. A poor race and Blanc De Chine remains susceptible.''