Wednesday 5 October 2011

6:10 Kempton - Result

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f. A poor race with the exception of the favourite. Sunrise Dance is a capable filly, who has competed and ran respectably in a number of races. With an official rating of 78, the daughter of Monsieur Bond has achieved a higher level than any of this opposition. Jarvis' charge was prone to ruining her chance mid season by pulling. However, on recent starts that zeal has been tamed and reason why this bonny chestnut has run well.

On paper, this is a supreme opportunity for her to win. This drop down in distance is likely to blunt that natural speed although she should have enough pace to lead the majority of these a merry dance. The main concern is the high draw, which is never ideal on this turning track. Whether this will be a thorn in her side is a matter of opinion but it could be a problem if forced to race wide or sitting too far off the pace. Sunrise Dance has a touch of class but at the odds I would take a watching brief although consider her hard to beat.

By all accounts this is a particularly poor field.Many have either no ability, regressed or running over an insufficient trip where they are likely to be outpaced.

Bookiesindexdotnet is one of few who makes some although limited appeal. This daughter of Piccolo hasn't achieved a great deal on four starts but if pressing on is a pretty fast juvenile. I was impressed with her performance at Windsor where for the majority of the race she travelled with supreme ease. In many ways, Jenkin's filly is a short runner with the choke out but Kempton is quite an unusual track where short runners can and often do steal a lead and by the time the opposition get organised round the final bend simply cannot make up the deficit. It is never easy to anticipate how a horse will be ridden but it could be a positive if Bookiesindexdotnet made a bold front-running display. 

Unless one of the debutantes or lightly raced juveniles improves a good deal I would stick with the above mentioned as the major fancies. Gabrial's Bounty looks certain to be outpaced. Perfect Day comes from a similar mould. Nude has regressed. 

A poor bunch who really need a transformation.

Conclusion: Sunrise Dance should win. This drop in distance shouldn't be a problem although the draw is far from ideal but Jarvis' youngster may have the class to do as she likes and win as she pleases. She would be a very deserving winner. Bookiesindexdotnet is not in the same class as Sunrise Dance but she has traits which could see her something of a surprise package. If Hughes presses on, this filly could cruise to an easy lead and the nature of the course could give hope of holding that advantage. Even with these positives, I feel Jenkins' representative may falter in the closing stages.

An interesting race.

HCE: ''A two-horse race but not the result favourite backers would have enjoyed. Neither Bookiesindexdotnet nor Sunrise Dance faltered and it was a head-bob finish. Jenkin's filly won in a photo. On balance the runner-up looked the more talented but in truth there was little between the pair.''