Tuesday 20 September 2011

3:30 Beverley (20th September) - Result

A restricted auction maiden stakes over 5f on good to firm ground. 

Many of these have been placed but that elusive win has evaded all.  

Half A Billion is one of the few who could get his head in front. This gelding by Acclamation is quite a strong, handsome juvenile and in his own way a consistent type. At the start of his career, 5f seemed a little on the sharp side but it may be the key to better fortunes today. He pulled far too hard last time at Thirsk and this minimum trip may help him settle. In a race which will not take much winning he has a good each way chance and should run to the line.

Red Shadow, Economic Crisis & Trust Fund Babe have similar credentials on their running at Ripon. Red Shadow is a speedy type and likely to be up with the pace, while Economic Crisis will be off the bridle, plugging on under pressure. It may be a pointer to all three chances that David Allan has ditched Trust Fund Babe, now taking the ride on Just Like Heaven who was beaten by Half A Billion. On balance, I would have to look elsewhere because the Ripon event may have been a moderate race at best and Just Like Heaven needs an excuse to reverse the form.

At such a lowly level debutantes are worthy of respect simply because they do not need to set the highest level to win. However, on the opposite side of the coin inexperience can be their Achille's heal.

Tarquin catches the eye. Linda Studds does well with the limited number of juveniles she trains. Forevertheoptimist has done well for the stable and Ron Stubbs, chatting on RUK earlier in the year, said they have a few talented juveniles yet to race. Perhaps this son of Excellent Art is one of their leading lights because he is fancied on the betting exchanges. Stubbs can win with her debutantes, although over 5f, against experienced opposition, a tardy start may scupper any hope of victory. An interesting runner but a watching brief.

Paul Hanagan is an interesting jockey booking for Al Dain, trained by Kevin Ryan. The betting is probably the best indicator to her chances. At present, this bay filly is unfancied on the betting exchanges. If substantially backed, she should be respected.

Conclusion: The question to ask for many of these juveniles is 'how many chances can you give a horse?' Half A Billion should go well. Stepping back in trip will help him settle and finish his race. A good each way selection if prices allow. The debutantes are worthy of note. Tarquin could be a leading chance if one of the stable's better juveniles. However, I  have reservations about backing debutantes against experienced opposition, especially over the minimum trip. Al Dain is weak in the betting but Ryan's juveniles often go well if substantially back but another to tread careful with on her racecourse bow. 

HCE: ''A poor race and not many got invloved. A nice win for Ashpan Sam who finished his race, which is key at this level. I noticed that Bechers Brook gave the winner as a selection today and his blog is a good read (click). Half A Billion managed a place but even over this minimum trip failed to settle early, which knocks the finish out of him.''