Wednesday 28 September 2011

2:40 Newcastle - Result

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 7f on good ground. Talk Of The North caught the eye on her last start when finding trouble in running at Lingfield. Hugo Palmer's two-year-old went off a well backed favourite but had little luck when short of room. She finished strongly and was counted as an unlucky loser by many. This daughter of Haafdh drops in distance today. This filly has an element of ability although the form of both starts is only fair and perhaps one to be careful with at shortish odds.

Sholaan ran in what looked to be a weak race at Chester. William Haggis' juvenile was made favourite but never really got competitive after a tardy start. Mcvicar won going away and has quite a lowly official rating, which brings question marks against the form. The third - Sir Trevor - has since won. Many juveniles falter at Chester, not taking to the course, and it just might be the case Sholaan is capable of better over this straight 7f. An interesting runner.

With the majority of the field debutantes, the experience  of the above noted could well give them leading claims. However, one juvenile which may have place claims on her race course bow is Lady Kashaan. Alan Swinbank is a canny trainer and although many of his juveniles go better on their second start, he can win at the first time of asking. Newcastle is quite a successful hunting ground and I can see this youngster being backed from speculative prices (28/1). Betting on debutantes is never straightforward because inexperience brings many confounding elements. But the plus side is that a big price might just be there for the taking.

Conclusion: Talk Of The North caught the eye last time when having no luck in running but there looks little value at the price. Sholaan could be a dark horse because I can't believe more wasn't expected last time. This straight 7f could see an improved performance although you have to take a chance at relatively short odds which tempers enthusiasm. Lady Kashaan is worth a speculative punt at fancy prices but may be more of a place candidate. 

HCE: ''The first two went a long way clear of the field and the unfancied Saeed Bin Suroor debutante, Al Saham, held the edge over Sholaan, who ran much better today although looked awkward in the last furlong. Talk Of The North took third. Lady Kashaan was up with the pace but faded from halfway and probably needed the race.''