Monday 8 August 2011

5:40 Windsor (8th August) - Result

An EBF Maiden for colts & two fillies over 6f on good  ground.

A very interesting race.

There are a number of potentially talented juveniles here but perhaps a difficult race to find an outright winner.

Time will tell.

Five raced juveniles catch the eye. All look to have enough ability to win a race and connections of the victor will have their heart set on better to come.

Charitable Act* & Sir Fredlot met at Salisbury in a race which has been franked by the easy triumph of Gusto on his next start at Haydock. The winner at Salisbury, Gerfalcon, is held in high regard by Brian Meehan. In fact, the first four were a long way clear of the field. But how will these two juveniles fair against each other today? The former, trained by William Muir, was certainly fitter and wiser than Sir Fredlot who was making his debut. Peter Winkworth is a tremendous trainer and always to be respected at Windsor. There is a fighting chance that this attractive gelding by Choisir can reverse the form with his old adversary. After a slow start, given time to find his stride, Sir Fredlot finished with some purpose. He is likely to improve a good deal for that initial start and from a low draw has fair win and place claims.

Backtrade may look a shade disappointing but he has ability. Andrew Balding spoke in quite glowing terms of this son of Holy Roman Emperor. Connections consider he is capable of winning a maiden. Well backed at Sandown, he was always niggled along but was running on with some hope when hampered in the final furlong. That fact that he went off such a short price is significant to his chances today. On looks, Backtrade isn't the most imposing: quite small to my eye and leggy. However, he has been on the sidelines and may have strengthened since then. It is important that Balding said the softer going conditions didn't suit last time and they were put forward as the reason for the disappointment. The ground at Windsor has since changed to good so it would be a concern if they had more rain. From looking at the exchanges, there is money for this colt. On balance, I would expect a big run.

They come thick and fast for this event.

Elusive Flight - trained by David Elsworth - has course and distance experience. Just one of two fillies taking on the boys, she is quite a tall, athletic type and knuckles down when asked to make her challenge. The form of that last race has been franked by Elsworth's Salford Art winning on her next start. Elusive Flight is a capable juvenile and she is up to winning a maiden. With a middle draw Fallon has the option of going near or far side rail depending on the ground. This looks a tough race and I just get the feeling there will be one or two better.

Amazing Storm is a handsome colt. I was impressed by this deep-chested son of Clodovil when he ran at Goodwood on his second start. He had no luck on debut when slowly into stride and to have a wide draw last time over that turning 7f is truly a negative. Not only that, he pulled and was too free to last the distance. He was eye catching, looming up at the two furlong pole, travelling like a winner, only to fade in the final stages. But what are we to make of him running over 6f? It could well be the answer. Of the two distances this 6f would seem more suiting but will this drop back blunt his speed? There is a big difference between six and seven furlongs. That factor would put me off betting at relatively short odds. I would rather watch how he fairs today. It wouldn't be a surprise if he ran a storming race but it often pays to be cautious. What made me take note more than anything was the look of this juvenile. He has the physic of a good horse. A watching brief.

Of the debutantes, it would take a talent to beat a number of proven juveniles. It would seem unlikely. Jinker Noble has been backed. Clive Cox has his two-year-olds in good form of late. In the past, Windsor was a very good hunting ground for his debutantes, which often managed to hit the frame at speculative odds. Money talks for this stable and if very well backed it would bring greater hope as their juveniles are generally fit and ready. However, even if that is the case, I would have to favour those with proven form.

*NR: Charitable Act 

Conclusion: A tricky race. There must be at least five or six juveniles with strong claims to win a race this season. The ground is an issue regarding the importance of the draw, because in a sizable field it could well make the difference between winning and losing. On good ground lower stalls have a fair advantage. Certainly Charitable Act and Amazing Storm would have a tougher task. However, if the ground changes to soft they would be favoured if jockeys' take the far rail. Of the individuals Charaitable Act & Sir Fredlot have proven form. Elusive Flame is a capable filly. Backtrade has ability and could go well but wouldn't enjoy soft going conditions. Amazing Storm is a good-looking colt but although potentially a fair juvenile still has something to prove over this shorter distance. In such a competitive heat I would need a fancy price to bet but that doesn't look likely and this isn't the easiest contest to win.

Most likely a watching brief.

HCE: ''A competitive affair even with Charitable Act a non runner. Amazing Storm is a talented juvenile over this 6f and could go on to pattern class. He finished this race with a gritty determination. Sir Fredlot ran a great race and most maidens would come easy to this gelding. Backtrade may have shown a little too much pace for the conditions. Perhaps 5f would be better, although he may fall between the two distances.''