Monday, 4 July 2011

7:10 Windsor (4th July) - Result

An EBF maiden for colts and fillies over 6f on good to firm ground.

Quite an interesting race with a few progressive juveniles and debutantes from leading trainers.

Radiomarelli was quite fancied on his second start at Newmarket and put his experience to good use, setting the pace. A fair-looking juvenile, he showed ability before struggling to cope with the late burst from Hadaj - who was very well backed for one of Clive Brittain's debutantes. The winner has since been entered to run in the Gimcrack (Group 2) and July Stakes (Group 2). It is difficult to get a hold on the form beyond what looks to be a talented winner. The third, Sehnusucht, stepped up to 7f on his next start at Sandown, and although running well, was left standing by Telwar. In truth, that may have been another talented two-year-old but to some extent the form is still unproven. Beckett has been quoted as saying this is a ''nice two-year-old''. Not the easiest to assess but likely to make a bold show and has place claims.

Tidy Affair was one of three juveniles representing Richard Hannon at Salisbury. A race won by their second or third string, beating favourite Minal. Fallon keeps the ride. A tall, athletic juvenile - a bay bordering on black - and an attractive type. He wasn't done any favours by a wide draw but showed good speed to sit in a handy position. They went a crawl in the first few furlongs, which not only made it a sprint to the line but also a race where many juveniles had traffic problems. By all accounts this son of Amadeus Wolf ran well, although much like Radiomarelli the form needs to be franked. The fifth, Invincible Dream, was slightly disappointing at Yarmouth on his next start.

Red Senor came from the same races as Hannon's juvenile. This son of Red Clubs is an interesting two-year-old. On form, this 130,000euro buy - a half-brother to Killybegs - looks to have little chance against Tidy Affair. However, he was quite well backed on debut and there could be better to come. In general, Hills' juveniles don't feature the best win rate on debut although their fancied runners often run into a place. Whether due to inexperience or soft ground conditions, this youngster was well beaten at the line after showing a glimmer of ability mid race. It is worth noting that many of the R. Arculli two-year-olds improve a good deal for their debut run and it is particularly interesting that this is Michael Hills only ride on the card. This is a significant point. There is little doubt you have to take a leap of faith to consider that Red Senor can improve a number of lengths to reverse the form with Tidy Affair. At relatively short odds I would rather take a watching brief. However, if speculative odds are available, he may be something of a dark horse.

Billyrayvalentine could go well. George Baker said he has a nice bunch of two-year-olds, and this colt by Elusive Quality shaped well on debut at this course over 5f. He was pretty short priced for one of Baker's making its debut, especially as the trainer notes that his juveniles improve a lot for the run. This American bred cost £105,000 and comes from a good family. A strong juvenile, he wasn't pressed on his racecourse bow, but wasn't too far away in what was probably no more than a fair race. However, this 6f will be more suiting and an much-improved effort can be expected today. To go off 9/2 on debut was a sign that this bay colt has more to come. If priced 13/2 & less, he has strong place claims and fighting chance of a win.

Of the debutantes, Stepturn in bred in the purple. A son of Gay Gallanta - Cheveley Park (Group 1) winner - needs little introduction as potentially a smart juvenile. Sir Michael Stoute is never the easiest of trainers to assess. Such is his reputation, that over half of his juveniles are priced 13/2 & less on debut. However, he only feature about a 13% win rate. Clearly, if this juvenile is fit, ready and talented it would have strong claims. The general strike rate would suggest a watching brief.

Conclusion: An intriguing race where all of the major fancies have something to prove. One or two are likely to improve a good deal and could be smart prospects. Radiomarelli is probably the most ''proven'' and likely to make a bold show.  However, I would favour others. Although Tidy Affair has the form to beat Red Senor, there is a good chance Hills two-year-old is much better than seen that day. Michael Hills doesn't waste his time and the fact that this is the only ride on the card is significant. Red Senor has fair win and place claims at respectable odds. Billyrayvaletine is another who is likely to improve a for that initial run over an insufficient trip. This two-year-old was a costly purchase, a short price on debut and from a stable that goes well with juveniles on their second start. If priced 13/2 & less, expect a big run. Stepturn is worth noting for the future.

HCE: ''A nice performance from Radiomarelli who stayed on to win quite comfortably. Beckett - not satisfied with the winner - had second spot with Dutch Rose and Tidy Affair stayed on with real purpose to take third from Red Senor.''