Monday 25 July 2011

2:15 Yarmouth (25th July) - Result

A restricted maiden auction stakes over 7f 3y on good ground.

In ways this race may revolve around the fortunes of one horse - Swing Alone. A relatively cheap breeze-up purchase at  £15,000, this son of Celtic Swing looked to have an unenviable challenge in making his debut at Royal Ascot in the Chesham Stakes. Much like her late father, Paul, Gay Kelleway has never been frightened of a challenge and this bay colt ran a superb race at odds of 40/1. By any measure, this will be a much easier task and her trainer is probably hoping to take this in some style before progressing to more loftier heights as noted by a Royal Lodge (Group 2) entry. Clearly this juvenile has strong claims.

What are we to make of the opposition?

On balance, with such a restricted race, the debutantes are unlikely to achieve the standards set by a handful of form horses. The betting is the best guide to their respective chances and if any are backed to 13/2 & less are worth a second look.

My Sharona* has shown ability on all three starts and although limited to some extent has a battling attitude and will appreciate this drop in class. The Newbury race was a fair contest, and this daughter of Dark Angel plugged on well at the line suggesting this 7f should not cause too many problems. She showed good speed here last time when just failing to win a small race, so will have no problems using her pace to sit handy and tap into that determination in the final furlong. In a weak race Sylvester Kirk's filly has sound each way claims.

I am quite a fan of Mark Brisbourne because he does wonders with his small string of juveniles. He is one of those trainers who often springs a surprise and that was almost the case with Lady Tycoon. This daughter of Indasatchel was backed from 50/1 - 16/1 on debut at Wolverhampton. A filly with some size and scope for a cheap purchase, she led the field a merry dance and for much of the way, looked to hold the aces, but tired a touch in the final furlong to be collared by Meanwhile. On balance, that was a sterling effort and she has claims with a featherweight in a race type of such restrictive nature. The problem is trying to assess the level of that form. The favourite done nothing and the rest of the field looked a motley crew. It just might be the case no one turned up that day. It is interesting to note O'Neill sticks with this ride as he was aboard My Sharona last time. It is intriguing to consider whether he had the choice of mounts. On the early declarations he was booked to ride Lady Tycoon, so there is no inside information to be gleaned from that point.

Of the others, Hamble may be worth a second chance if backed to 13/2 & less. This juvenile is owned by Charles Cyzer (ex-trainer), a home bred from a winning family and quite an attractive horse. He has been off course for a good while and may have been gelded since that run. He was quite fancied in the betting that day but never held much chance after a slow start and then outpaced. On balance, the form looks weak but he gave the impression there could be substantial improvement to come. This step up to 7f will certainly be a positive and Cyzer is a canny owner. He isn't the type of person to have a horse in training for the fun of it. The betting is the key to this gelding's chances and if backed he could be something of a dark horse.

Conclusion: Unless one of the debutantes is substantially backed this looks a four horse race. Swing Alone sets the standard dropping from Listed class to a restricted auction race. Kelleway will be disappointed if her representative doesn't shine today. He looks the horse to beat but priced around even money makes a few in opposition tempting each way alternatives. My Sharona should travel well and has the attitude to grind out a finish. She has sound place claims and may sneak a win. Lady Tycoon could go well although a little difficult to assess. Hamble needs to improve but may do just that. The key to him is the betting. If backed to 13/2 & less expect a big performance.

*NR: My Sharona

HCE: ''The money didn't come for Hamble but it didn't stop William Haggis' juvenile winning. A good-looking gelding, with a nice attitude, he could well go on to win a nursery if not a conditions stakes. There was a huge gamble on Ocean Tempest - for John Ryan - from over 300/1 on Betfair to an Sp of 10/1. His backers must have felt disappointed to go so close but denied at the line. Swing Alone was difficult in the paddock and definitely temperamental. He settled going down to the start but never looked happy in the race but ran on well at the line. Perhaps stepping up to a mile would be to his benefit but one to be slightly careful with as his earlier antics could only be viewed as a negative,''