Sunday 24 July 2011

1:50 Carlisle (24th July) - Result

A maiden auction stakes over 5f on good ground.

Half A Billion has done nothing wrong in two starts, beaten in photo finishes. Perhaps this will be his day. Dods has been in great form with his juveniles this season with the majority placing on debut and showing they have enough ability to win a race. This bay gelding has size and scope and will make a few of these look quite small. His form is probably no more than fair. With course experience he should feel at home and it just may be the case that Hamilton wasn't suiting, although bar the grinding finish of the eventual winner, the rest of the field were put in their place. Never In and Lord Buffhead look held. On balance, Half A Billion has sound win and place claims.

The two major opponents look to be Byrama & Summer Lane. Both showed promise and look the types to improve on their initial starts. It is worth noting that race was pretty ordinary. The runner-up First Fast Now is no more than a limited auction horse, who has struggled to gain that elusive victory.

Byrama certainly has some size and scope and could well improve substantially on her debut run at Beverley. Owners Yan Wah Wu have been a much deserved boost to the Tinkler stable and this Hong Kong based outfit have already found success with able juvenile Bomber Jet. This bay filly by Byron - a half-sister to Klammer - was very inexperienced that day. A slow start, outpaced, awkward when challenging on the rail in the closing stages were all factors of not appreciating the task at hand. She should be much the wiser today. On form, she holds Summer Lane. However, it might be foolish to consider that as a foregone conclusion.

Summer Lane was a few lengths adrift of Byrama on debut but things didn't really fall for her that day. This half-sister to Baycat had a wide draw and wasn't best away. Jumping the path mid-race scuppered any hope of being competitive, although she did run on to some extent. Mrs H Steel, owner, is generally very lucky and has been connected with many talented juvenile with Richard Fahey. Summer Lane isn't the most imposing of fillies and may not catch the eye like Byrama and Half A Billion but could well be competitive. If substantially backed, it would be a sign of confidence.

Conclusion: This looks a three-horse race. Half A Billion sets the standard on form and should appreciate this return to Carlisle. He has a fighting chance and strong place claims. Byrama and Summer Lane are likely to improve a good deal. It is worth noting that Beverley form is moderate. There may not be a great deal between this pair, who have fair win and place claims. I would just give Half A Billion the nod.

HCE: ''A nice win for Byrama.''