Tuesday 19 July 2011

2:15 Yarmouth (19th July) - Result

An intriguing race.

A restricted maiden auction over 6f 3y on soft ground.

Emirates Art is a short price to take this on her second start. This daughter of Excellent Art showed promise on debut in a restricted auction race at Lingfield. Simcock's representative was quite well backed and caught many an eye with a purposeful finish. On balance, the form of that race was probably no more than average. It was more the thunderous dash to the line, which gives hope for further improvement today. Whether taking even money on soft ground against a few promising juveniles is a good bet or not is a matter of opinion but I would be careful at short odds.

Levi Drapper is a very interesting horse. This son of Rock Of Gibraltar out of the smart sprinter Splice was fancied in the betting on debut. He is a good-looking colt with size and scope and surprisingly cheap at 5,000gns. Fanshawe's two-year-olds rarely win on debut but it may be significant he was quite fancied in the betting when making his debut at Leicester. In truth, he looked a big baby - very inexperienced - and was simply too green to appreciate the task at hand and was soon outpaced. There has been good money for this youngster at big prices on the exchanges. Any horse can disappoint on debut and it could well be the case Levi Drapper has ability. On form, he has little chance unless ample improvement is forthcoming. The betting is the key although being such a small field there is always a slight concern this bay colt may be forced to be a shorter price than he merits. If this juvenile is priced 13/2 & less I would expect a big run. If this was a larger field at the same price I would be very confident. It will be interesting to see whether there is a weakness in the betting nearer the off. This would be a negative.

Tidal's Baby showed a little more promise last time at Epsom and may have appreciated the better ground. Half the battle for all opposition today is whether they will handle soft ground conditions and this factor certainly adds to the quandary.

My Sharona is another to have shown a glimmer of ability, running on last time after being outpaced. With her apprentice on board, she get in here on a very low weight.

Conclusion: A tricky race. Emirates Art made a promising debut and was running on with purpose at the line. However, on soft ground I would rather watch than bet. Levi Drapper is a very interesting horse if not difficult to assess. He is something of a contradiction because on form he has little chance but if priced 13/2 & less - from a statistical point - has outstanding claims. The betting is key, although the small field does bring slight concerns that he could be forced into this betting guide. A very interesting runner and the stronger the betting the greater his chances. A drift before the off would be a negative. My Sharona may appreciate this stiffer test and has a handy weight. A watching race.

HCE: ''A lively betting heat with a number of horses supported. Emirates Art looked to be coasting for most but made hard work of passing My Sharona who was fighting back at the line. Levi Drapper was uneasy in the market but finally settled outside the best beting guide and most probably needs more time.''