Monday 18 July 2011

2:15 Yarmouth (18th July) - Result

Quite a restricted auction race over 7f 3y on soft ground.

Bronze AngelIceni Girl are significant non runners, which changed the reflection of this race.

It is unusual to see one of Mark Tompkins' juveniles fancied in the betting. However, Rayvin Black certainly showed ability on debut at Newmarket in a pretty competitive race. He travelled very well for most, only tiring in the final furlong. Tompkins has such a poor win rate on debut that there is a fair chance this youngster will improve a good deal for that initial start. The ground was on the slow side at Newmarket and the trainer's juveniles often go well on soft ground. The most significant factor is that Tompkins has a very strong place claims with his fancied juveniles on their second start. Although with non runners aplenty there is little value to be offered.

Mahmood Al Zarooni has been in good form with his juveniles although many improve with racing. In an open race Equity Card is one for the short list.

Casa Bex could go well at a price. Philip McBride is a talented trainer and this son of Auction House didn't have one ounce of luck at Newmarket over 6f last time. He was badly hampered at a crucial stage and didn't recover thereafter. Whether he would have been competitive if not sustaining such a problem is a matter of debate. However, he is a decent-looking two-year-old and could well progress after over fifty days off course. This 7f may bring about further improvement and coming from a French dam may enjoy these testing conditions. If backed, it would be an additional sign of encouragement.

Exning Halt is worth noting for the future.

Conclusion: A difficult race to assess with non runners being announced as this post was being written. Rayvin Black is a rare fancied two-year-old for Mark Tompkins and it is a pity that the two main contenders being withdrawn due to changing ground conditions. Rayvin Black has very strong place claims but that is of little use when he will probably start even money favourite. Casa Bex is an interesting juvenile for Phil McBride. It wouldn't be a surprise to see a big run and the key to that may be the betting. If substantially backed, he has fair win and place claims.

HCE: ''An easy win for Rayvin Black.''