Saturday 25 June 2011

4:15 Newcastle (25th June) - Result

An EBF maiden over 5f on good to soft ground for colts & fillies.

An open race.

Kool Henry has been knocking on the door. An attractive colt with scope, he has proven to have a level of ability but also the knack of bumping in to one too good. On balance, he has shown enough ability to win at auction class and may tell a similar story in this maiden. The Chester race is difficult to fathom. Nearly A Gift has won with ease, which seemed a little surprising, so the idiosyncratic nature of the course may have helped some and hindered others. A fair sort with each way claims.

Laffan is quite short in the betting, after showing promise at Doncaster on debut. Ryan's juveniles have been in cracking form this season and I can imagine many people anticipating a better run over this 5f because he travelled well on debut but seemingly struggled to last the final furlong. This son of Dark Angel is an attractive horse but was ridden as if fit and ready. Perhaps this drop in distance will be the answer. Although it is always a slight worry that dropping in distance will blunt what looked good pace. If strongly fancied in the betting, a fair run should be expected.

Alnair may be a little better than he looks after finishing 7th & 5th on his two starts to date. Declan Carroll knows a decent juvenile and this son of Red Clubs was quite an expensive buy at 40,000gns. It could well be the case that the Warwick race was a competitive heat. I think the first four are all up to winning races and Alnair may have similar claims. He was a touch outpaced after being keen in the early stages and these more testing conditions may help him finish with more purpose. It is difficult to get a grip on where he stands but in an open race - that may not take much winning - he could go well at a price.

Bryan Smart's juveniles are in much better form than early season where they looked a pretty hopeless bunch. Free Zone was a 66/1 a shot on debut and clearly not fancied to do much in a strong maiden. This son of Kyllachy showed speed for a few furlongs but then dropped out of contention. In truth, that didn't set no more than moderate form but it would be no surprise to see a different horse after nearly a month off course. Clipper Logistics have been quite lucky owners in their time and with a drop in distance, Smart's juveniles finally escaping the grey cloud, and an open race, there may be more to come. They key factor today will be the betting. If backed to 13/2 & less, I would expect a big run.

Conclusion: An open/tricky race. Kool Henry sets the standard but may be prone to seconditis. Laffan is relatively fancied in the betting and may appreciate this drop in distance. Whether he has the speed to be competitive only time will tell. Alnair may be over looked. I get the feeling that was a fair run at Warwick and these testing conditions may help at the finish. Free Zone needs to improve a good deal but Smart's two-year-olds have been in better form and if backed to 13/2 & less would have good win and place claims.

HCE: ''Probably a moderate maiden but a game effort from Kool Henry who duelled with Free Zone in the final furlong. Smart's, 2nd, improved from his debut effort although wasn't backed as I imagined. He looked to hold the aces but O'Meara's youngster prevailed. Satanic Beat plugged on well for third.''

Full result (click)

Other races:
1:45 Newmarket
2:05 Chester
2:15 Newmarket
2:25 Windsor
5:50 Lingfield
6:10 Doncaster