Thursday 19 May 2011

2:20 Haydock (19th May) - Result

An auction maiden over 6f on good ground.

Many of the debutantes are from unfashionable stables and will need to be the exception rather than the rule to figure.

The form horses are of most interest although all have something to prove even considering a number are competing at this lower grade.

Arabian Falcon will be high on many people's short list. Brian Meehan's two-year-olds are gradually finding their form and this will be the best opportunity for this chestnut colt to date. While this may be a significant drop in class, it is a matter of opinion whether it will result in a win or not. A 45,000euro foal, owned by Jaber Abdullah, and experience on side are all positives. However, there are negatives too. It is a fair comment that the Goodwood race was a decent contest. In fact, he was well backed and Meehan has very good win and place statistics with his juveniles on their second start. It was concerning to see this youngster so inexperienced. He displayed signs of being either unwilling, lazy or babyish. These negatives have to be balanced with the fact this race will not take the world of beating. But where do we draw the line? Perhaps we will see a completely different horse today. It's possible. However, from a wide draw - stall one - he may be even more likely to become detached. Dwyer needs to make sure this colt doesn't fall behind because he was outpaced at Goodwood and this could be a repeat performance. Playing catch-up will make life hard but if knuckling down he could run on at the finish. I just get the feeling Arabian Falcon is a tricky customer and that doesn't inspire confidence even in a race of this nature.

Tight Lipped - trained by David Brown - was quite fancied in the betting on debut and flew from the stalls. It is a quandary trying to assess the merit of the that Beverley race. The second Superplex ran poorly on his next start so it is guess work to a point. Brown features fair win and place claims with his fancied juveniles on their second start but I would have to take a watching brief after the disappointing run of Superplex.

Kevin Ryan has a couple of talented two-year-olds and Fact Or Fiction may be capable of better after a so so effort on debut over course and distance. Margaret Forsyth has owned a number of juveniles with Ryan and they often go on to win. This son of Dutch Art wore the first colours when the stable/owner had two running here on debut. The 'second string' ran much better finishing in the frame and looked the more attractive horse. Fact Or Fiction wasn't best away and couldn't ever get in contention but that was probably a fair race. There is a possibility he needed the run and it is encouraging to see Makin taking the ride. If priced 13/2 & less he has respectable win and place claims.

Of the rest, Evervescent may be of interest. Moore's representative ran at Goodwood on debut and although at the tail end of the field, the form has been franked by the third winning nicely at York. This 6f could bring about further improvement and with race fitness/experience this bay gelding may have a fighting chance. Callan doesn't ride very often for the stable which may be a negative but as Keniry has engagements at Sandown this evening it might be fair reason. Improvement is needed, but there could be more to come. If priced 13/2 & less - or heavily gambled - Evervescent should be respected.

Of the debutantes Dylan's Dream and Fortrose Academy are the most interesting

The former trained by Tim Easterby has been supported on the exchanges and the stable have been in superb form with their two-year-olds this season. Easterby has done well with his debutantes at Ripon, which seems a favoured hunting ground. However, his general win rate with debutantes is quite poor. I would rather watch and learn a little more.

Fortrose Academy hails from one of my favourite stables in Andrew Balding. He can win with juveniles making their racecourse bow but they are infrequent and the majority are priced 7/1 & less. Even then they are more likely to be placed than win. A watching brief.

Conclusion: A tricky race. Most of the debutantes have little chance with the exception of Dylan's Dream and Fortrose Academy and I would much rather watch than bet. This is likely to go to a form horse. But which one? All have something to prove. Arabian Falcon is a difficult horse because he has shown glimmers of ability but conversely an attitude which doesn't inspire confidence. How Dwyer rides this youngster is crucial, especially from an extreme draw. The worry is that he will be outpace, then show a lazy/unwilling attitude. He may be a completely different horse from last time and this drop in class could be the answer. However, I couldn't bet on this horse. He seemed to make racing look very hard work at Goodwood and that would be a concern. Tight Lipped may have a chance simply because Brown has a fair win and place rate with his fancied juveniles on their second start. However, the Beverley race may be poor. Superplex didn't frank the form although he may have had an off day. I can see Fact or Fiction running a much improved performance if priced 13/2 & less. The same goes for Evervescent. It would be encouraging if there was money for Stan Moore's youngster who could be the dark horse of the race.

HCE: ''This didn't look the strongest race and the form horses proved best on the day. Stan Moore continues in good form with his juveniles and Evervescent plugged on quite well to win by just over a length. Tight Lipped ran respectably and gave the impression Superplex may have disappointed at Beverley. Andrew Balding's Fortrose Academy ran on and will improve for the experience. Lupo D'Oro showed good pace and has potential. Arabian Falcon showed much better speed but struggled in the last hundred yards.''