Wednesday 20 October 2010

Wednesday's Thoughts

2:30 Ffos Las
Unless a few of the lightly raced juveniles improve, this looks a match between Never Never Land and Lady Bridget. The former, trained by John Gosden, finished strongly in a similar grade behind the cosy winner, Opera Dancer. There should be more to come with that experience under this gelding's belt and he has a leading chance. Lady Bridget is a likable filly, who has run well on both starts. A pacey sort, Robert Winston may employ front-running tactics as seen on her last start at Bath when quite fancied in the betting. This daughter of Hawk Wing has an element of ability but the form is probably no more than average and may struggle against the bigger, stronger colts. Of the others, if Rastaban was backed to 13/2 & less, a much better performance may be seen today.

7:50 Kempton
Terdaad has been fancied to run a big race on both his starts - and to some extent disappointed. Once again, this son of Shamardal is likely to go off a short priced favourite and it will be intriguing to see if this two-year-old's reputation can be fulfilled. I would be careful with betting this juvenile at odds on. His last effort seemingly reads well: the first two a long way clear of the third. However, it is questionable what the form of that race amounts too - as the majority behind have shown little ability since. The crux of the question is whether Aciano ran better on the all-weather last time. Before that effort, he had shown only a limited standard and if he ran a similar race against Terdaad, the favourite could have a problem. Mutayaser has been brought along in progressive fashion. His debut run - when very well backed - was nothing to speak about, and given an easy introduction and not pressed. The form of that race looks rather weak, but this expensive 230,000gns purchase improved to run quite well at Sandown, behind the talented Masked Marvel. Sir Michael Stoute's runner wasn't overly pressed when Hills realised they were held by the winner, and the third, Discoteca, has run creditably on testing ground since. Mutayaser is an attractive colt and travels well in his races, so should sit in a handy position today. Connections will be expecting a big run and this colt will be pressed for a greater effort and has strong place claims and a fighting chance of a win. Puttingonthestyle has place claims, too.

8:20 Kempton
Not too many with a chance for this maiden over 6f. It is difficult to know what to think about Strictly Pink. Clearly connections hold her in some regard, as seen by this daughter of Kodiac running at Group level on her second start. Bailey is the type of trainer to have his feet on the ground but I would have reservations about this filly. Perhaps the all weather surface at Kempton was the making of her last time. That was a puzzling race where the winner won with ease and the rest seemed to be running all over the place. It could be the case she was flattered to some extent. Today will answer a few questions. Elegant Muse is a lovely looking filly by Fraam. There must have been a problem or two with Swinburn's two-year-old as she hasn't been seen since the end of May. There was much to like about that debut effort but it is a worry why such an absence and probably best watched on this belated return. Jeremy Noseda is represented by Instance, ridden by Dettori. This filly held a Cheveley Park Stakes entry at one stage and must be respected. The stable have a fair win rate on debut although many of their juveniles seem under priced. A difficult horse to assess but in a potentially weak race, one of the main contenders. Beso has decent each-way claims if fancied in the betting.


Today's races:
2:30 Ffos Las
5:50 Kempton
6:20 Kempton
7:50 Kempton
8:20 Kempton