Thursday 5 August 2010

2:20 Yarmouth

A maiden over 6f3y for colts and fillies on good ground.

Darej will go off a hot favourite. This American-bred chestnut colt cost $170,000 as a yearling and clearly held in high regard by Haggis and connections with entries for the Champagne Stakes (Group 2), Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) and Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1). On balance, there is much to instill confidence about this two-year-old. However, Haggis doesn't feature the best win and place statistics with his debutantes, which indicates many improve for their racecourse bow. This doesn't look a particularly strong maiden which makes a successful first victory more likely although it would pay to tread careful.

The main opponent looks to be the Mark Tompkin-trained Toparichi. A home-bred colt by Bahamian Bounty, this youngster went off 66/1 on debut when a long way behind the talented Formosina, running on showing a glimmer of ability. Tompkins' two-year-olds often improve for the run and if fancied in the betting have very good place claims. The potential for this juvenile to win comes more from the likelihood that the favourite will need the experience. Price permitting, Toparichi is a fair each way bet.

Of the rest, Burnem Green would have a significant chance if backed and relatively fancied in the betting.

Bet: 2:20 Yarmouth - Toparichi 1PTEW (5/1) 7th
Comment: 'A poor race and the favourite was clearly in need of the run but Toparichi ran no race at all. Considering Tompkins' second string was in front of our selection I cannot believe this was his running. A statistical bet that are generally very strong. A disappointing 7th is particularly frustrating.'

Other races:
2:10 Haydock
2:40 Haydock
3:00 Brighton
5:30 Folkstone
5:40 Sandown
5:50 Bath
6:35 Folkestone
6:45 Sandown