Wednesday 7 July 2010

3:00 Lingfield

A restricted auction race over 6f.

The majority of these were cheap purchases and shown only limited ability - with the exception of Midnight Feast.

Peter Winkworth's two-year-old didn't show a jot at Sandown on debut but had something of a transformation at Salisbury next time when 2nd at 50/1. This gelding by Ishiguru is a big, strapping sort and quite a keen horse. He pulled for much of the Salisbury maiden and for an auction event that was a decent race. The winner is talented and capable of winning at a higher level and the 3rd, Fight The Chance, ran well next time when 2nd at Haydock. There is little doubt Midnight Feast has enough ability to win a race of this nature, however, the draw could be a concern. With plenty of pace, Morris may well try to get to the rail, although that may be a tall order from stall 12. At restricted odds and with the draw an issue it may be best to watch today.

Of the other form horses, none have achieved a great deal but have claims at this low level especially with the potential bias relating to the favourite.

Nothing To Hide ran an improved race at Windsor when 66/1. The winner Capaill Liath was in a different class and to be fair the place horses are most likely limited. Saying that, Nothing To Hide, a bay gelding by Barathea, is a good-looking juvenile and could well have place claims again.

Red Zeus was behind Nothing To Hide but may be open to improvement as Moore's two-year-olds can improve for the run. It would be encouraging if backed.

Another candidate with relating form lines is Valeo Si Vales. This bay colt by Oratorio was an outsider when never a factor at Salisbury on debut and on that form has something to find with Nothing To Hide. It is interesting that Osbourne's two-year-old was backed on his next start at Goodwood as the trainer is in flying form at present and looked to be going well that day when fading at the finish. This drop back to 6f may be the answer and better may be expected today.

Avalon Bay is quite fancied on the exchanges at present although the form of his race at Kempton looks moderate.

In truth, Midnight Feast is the most interesting juvenile for this race and from a lower draw would take some beating. Whether stall 12 is too much a hindrance is a matter of debate but it is certainly an obstacle. Valeo Si Vales may be capable of better and at a price, and low draw, could have each way claims.

Bet: 3:00 Lingfield - Valeo Si Vales 0.5PTEW (14/1) 7th

Comment:'A speculative bet with hope of beating the badly-drawn favourite but a very disappointing selection as there was no improvement for Valeo Si Vales.'

General thoughts: 'It has been a disappointing time of late and a number of speculative bets have just not found a winner or two. For the near future we will stick with proven form horses and best statistical selection which will bring some stability to the season.'

Other races:
2:15 Catterick
2:25 Lingfield
2:35 Newmarket
3:45 Newmarket
6:50 Kempton