5:10 Yarmouth (23rd April) Free Horse Racing Tips

YARMOUTH MASCOT RACE
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f 34y on good to firm ground. In many ways this looks like the race where no one turned up! Perhaps that is a little unfair because horses always have the knack of surprising people. Sometimes the worse they look - the better they run. However, most with experience have not achieved a great deal. Although, even in the worst race there has to be a winner. Somewhere.

Richard Fahey is having a slow start to the season and yet to train a two-year-old winner. He must be frustrated by recent events as a number of their juveniles have been in need of the run which isn't the norm with this stable. Fahey has been quoted as saying they have a different type of horse this season and that does bring concerns. Jaga Time drifted markedly in the betting on debut at Southwell. It couldn't have helped that this colt was quoted as being nothing special. This son of Compton Place showed good pace before tiring in the final two furlongs. I don't think it was a strong race and Jaga Time was ridden as though fit, which probably illustrates his limitations. He is still one of the more pacey juveniles in this race if their debut efforts are to be believed. This chestnut colt could travel well but whether he has the ability to win is a matter for debate.

Stan Moore fields two and neither really caught the eye on debut. Cockney Bob cost £500 at the yearling sales and bred to enjoy a trip. This son of Cockney Rebel is a gelding who didn't look like he had come in his coat at Leicester. To be fair that was a decent race with the second and third running well since. He was very slow away from the stalls, which scuppered any real chance. Gannon [jockey] kept pushing and he ran on quite well in the closing stages. I just wonder if he ran in a different race and was flattered. He looked to be comprehensively outpaced for most. It might just be the case he needed the run because Moore's juveniles are much better on their second start. Horses can improve beyond recognition first to second start so it pays to give horses second chances. However, I would have fears he could be left standing if a couple with pace press on and may well touch bigger odds in running.

Aweebitowinker was rousted along when making his debut at Wolverhampton and wasn't helped in the least by running wide on this turning course. This gelding - £1,500 yearling purchase - done well to stay competitive for most but struggled in the final two furlongs. The first two were in a different class. Considering the second has since run at Selling class it sets the level. 

Marilyn Marquessa was well backed on debut but disappointed. She then seemed to run a big race at Kempton although that was a difficult contest to judge because the majority of the field needed the experience. I think Hughes youngster made the most of her experience and running the rail. The complexion of that race changed dramatically in the closing stages and if the race had been over an extra half furlong she would have been beaten a good few lengths. Unless the latest run at Wolverhampton was a disappointment, it was no more than a limited effort. The winner and second have some ability but three runs suggest this daughter of Captain Gerrard is limited.

With so many of the form horses looking pretty average punters may look to the debutantes to lead the way.

Mick Quinn doesn't have many two-year-olds in training but Anfield, although a relatively cheap purchase at £5,000, is quite well bred being a half-sister to Dreamy Ciara who showed fair juvenile form with David Evans. The problem is assessing whether she will be fit and ready. I have little data about Quinn as a juvenile trainer so hard to have any strong views other than thinking he isn't really a two-year-old trainer. 

George Baker has his first two-year-old runner with Der Blaue Reiter. This chestnut colt cost 20,000euros, which in the context of this race is fair money. The mare has bred a number of hugely expensive yearlings including Elite Dubai who cost over 500,000gns. If this chestnut colt has ability he could well win this race. However, the main stumbling block is that Baker's juveniles have a pretty poor strike rate on debut. It would be folly to say he couldn't win but I would like to see this May foal seriously backed to give greater confidence.

John Ryan's colt by Three Valleys is one of the more interesting although on breeding may benefit from a greater test of stamina. Applejack Lad cost 10,000gns and it's a positive to see Fallon in the saddle. Additionally, he has been entered for a Stakes race, which brings further hope of ability. Such entries can be red herrings or offer little significance but they are often a better sign than not. 

Conclusion: This looks a mad race and difficult to assess. Those who have raced have shown no more than limited ability which detracts from their chances but in such an open race it doesn't dictate they cannot win. I wouldn't have the slightest interest in betting. The Stakes entry for Applejack Lad could well be a pointer but I would have to take a watching brief. 


2 comments:

Orangefleece (James) said...

Anoth excellent write up ona side note Mick Quinn's horses are always better second time out ... Something he's been quoted on.

Jason Coote said...

Hi James,

Thanks for your comment. I'm quite looking forward to this race as it looks mad.

:-)