Wednesday's Thoughts

1:30 Lingfield
The first division of this maiden over one mile. Not much form to assess with the majority being debutantes. Layla's King is fancied on the exchanges after running at Nottingham on debut in very testing conditions. On balance, that was a fair contest with the first three all capable of winning a maiden without too much fuss. Chapple-Hyam's colt was backed that day, which adds to encouragement and she features a decent win rate with fancied runners on their second start. The main advantage this son of Dubawi has over his opposition is experience and for that reason alone is one of the main contenders. The problem many of the debutantes face is that they do not come from stables that win very often on their race course bow. Marcus Tregoning is represented by Atraaf, a colt by Intikhab, and although the stable have the potential to train talented juveniles their win rate with fancied two-year-olds on debut is moderate and more likely to be placed at best. More Than Enough comes from a stable that can win at the first time of asking and money for this sister of Conniption would give each way claims, a weakness in the betting would suggest today is not the day. This race is likely to revolve around Monopolize, trained by Henry Cecil and owned by K Abdulla - a potent force this season. It is always difficult to assess the potential of an unraced horse and it is certainly no easy task to win on debut. Cecil has a fair win rate with his fancied juveniles on their first start and one to be respected although personally I would rather watch this two-year-old today.

2:05 Lingfield
Club Oceanic has been well supported on the exchanges and could improve on his debut. An expensive colt at 210,000gns, Noseda's two-year-olds can often show their worth after a so so effort on their race course bow. Clearly improvement is needed, however if continuing to be strong in the market, a big run can be expected. Much like the first division a number of debutantes will struggle and for that reason I would rather watch Hawaafez, Around The Clock and the William Knight trio. By Implication, trained by John Gosden, is one of the few that makes much appeal and the betting of this two-year-old should indicate its chances. If 13/2 & less at the off this colt has fair place claims although being unraced always makes life more difficult, especially on a turning track.

5:35 Kempton
Quite a moderate race and certainly a restricted auction race. Follow My Dream is no world beater but looks the type to go close today. Enlightening has an element of ability but may be vulnerable once again. Corsican Boy would have claims if fancied in the betting (13/2 & less) although needs to improve a huge amount after being run off his hooves at Newmarket on debut. Many of Roger Charlton's two-year-olds progress from their first run and has place claims if fancied in the betting.

6:05 Kempton
The second division and by all accounts a weak race. Prince Of Burma is the most natural choice - from a talented trainer, likely to improve a good deal from his debut run and cost more than most of these put together (100,000 yearling). Inexperience cost this colt on his first start and Gosden's youngster is sure to be wiser and fitter today but needs to improve on that initial performance. Flying Power ran much better on his second start at Southwell. An attractive gelding, he doesn't look the most straightforward, running away from the whip in the closing stages, which probably cost him the race. The main concern is what the form amounts to as it was a pretty ordinary contest. In such a lowly affair Lanigan's two-year-old must have claims although I would favour others. Blue Maisey is an interesting contender from a small stable (Miss S L Davison). This filly ran quite well at huge odds behind Little Curtsey over course and distance. Whether that was something of a fluke or this filly has an element of ability will be seen today. It is always a risk betting on smaller trainers, although Blue Maisey looked a willing type and could be a fair each way bet.


Today's races:
1:30 Lingfield
2:05 Lingfield
5:35 Kempton
6:05 Kempton
6:35 Kempton

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