Showing posts with label Rah Rah. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rah Rah. Show all posts

Tuesday, 3 May 2016

2:10 Chester Racing Tips (4th May) STELLAR GROUP LILY AGNES CONDITIONS STAKES (PLUS 10 RACE) (CLASS 2) (2yo)


The Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes is named after the seventeenth-century thoroughbred racehorse and winner of 21 races including the Northumberland Plate, Doncaster Cup and Ebor Handicap. She is best known for being the mare of Triple Crown winner Ormonde. In addition, she was the mother of 1000 Guineas winner Farewell in 1882.  Lily Agnes was herself exceptionally well bred being the daughter of 2000 Guineas and Derby winner Macaroni. 

The Lily Agnes has been won by a number of talented early-season two-year-olds. Rah Rah won last year for Mark Johnston. This daughter of Lonhro disappointed in the Queen Mary Stakes Group 2 at Royal Ascot but finished a respectable fourth in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket. 

Other noted winners include Mukhmal, The Lord & Star Rover. Click here to see a list of winners for the last 18 years.              

A Class 2 Conditions Stakes race over 5f  16y on good to soft going. With over £12,000 prize money to the winner, this should be a competitive heat.  From a first entry stage of twenty-three juveniles, we see a field of eight. Three colts, two geldings, and three fillies take part, all raced by the solitary debutante, Our Greta, trained by Michael Appleby. Five winners are hoping for further glory. This race is a stepping stone to Royal Ascot, which takes place in June.

A low draw can be a big advantage at the Roodee. Fiery Character, trained by Tom Dascombe, has one of the plum draws stalled two. This bay filly, a daughter of Dragon Pulse, is one of umpteen two-year-olds racing in the silks of The Roaring Twenties. This brown filly looks an inspired yearling purchase for Sackville Donald at just 18,000eur. She may have surprised connections by winning on debut at odds of 33/1. This April foal showed a determined attitude, leading from the stalls, rallying well in the closing stages to win by over one length.  The form of that race has taken a few knocks but she looks the type to enjoy this course.  

Manor House Stables field *Imdancinwithurwife who is something of an enigma. This Irish-bred daughter of Sir Prancealot started her racing career at Saint-Cloud, France. She was fancied to go well at odds of 6/1 but finished tenth. I couldn't quite believe what I was seeing when she raced on her second start at Wolverhampton. In the morning, this bay filly was priced about 6/1. She won - returning odds of 16/1. In many respects, connections may have doubted she could win and, perhaps, that explains such weakness in the market. The form of that race doesn't look anything special. She looks second string and needs to improve.

Hugo Palmer is showing his class as a trainer winning his first Classic with Galileo Gold [2000 Guineas] and he knows his two-year-olds. Copper Knight ran well on debut at Newmarket when opposing form horses such as Sutter County and Tomily. That was a stiff task for any debutante but this son of Sir Prancealot was fancied to go well at odds of 10/1. He wasn't given a hard time and showed good pace to finish third, less than two lengths behind talented juveniles who are earmarked for Royal Ascot. He was fancied to win on his second start at Windsor but that turned out to be a stronger contest than connections may have wished. In truth, he did little wrong but wandering to his left in the closing stages, which cost him a win. Legendary Lunch, trained by Richard Hannon, prevailed and make no mistake this colt is a class act. Connections have Royal Ascot in their sights with this talented colt. 

Copper Knight had Awesome Allan over two lengths behind that day, although it should be noted that David Evans charge had the burden of a 6lb penalty which is a stiff task for a two-year-old. This son of Acclamation has the added problem of stall eight. If able to lead, he would have claims but that is a gamble in itself. However, he is worthy of respect.

Evans has Letmestopyouthere who slightly better drawn in stall six. It's still far from ideal. 

This bay colt, a son of Sir Prancealot, ran no race on debut when last behind Sutter County. He started a big price that day and looked limited but well backed the second start when enjoying the soft ground at Nottingham. That was a strange race. This April foal simply skipped over the ground and won well. I suspect he loves the soft ground and those in opposition that day either failed to handle conditions or needed the run. If the weather deteriorates and turning the going soft, he may well hold some hope. 

Stan Moore is a canny trainer and does well at the sales often buying yearlings for next to no money and usually proves his judgement is correct finding winners. Patrouille De Nuit is an Irish-bred son of Bushranger who cost a paltry 3,200eur. This gelding started his career in a hot maiden, behind Sutter County. He beat Letmestopyouthere. starting at odds of 33/1, he showed fair pace until tiring in the closing stages to finish seventh, beaten a long way by the winner, but so were the rest of the field. He was ridden as though fit. A small, compact juvenile, who looked good in his coat. Stall one is positive. This February foal may have the pace to lead but it seems unlikely he will have the class to trouble the major players. He may well touch shorter odds in running if that is your angle.    

I was delighted to see Steph Hollinshead's Stoneyford Lane win on debut. Both horse and jockey deserved praise for their never-say-die attitude, which saw this gelding win on the line. I thought Royston Ffrench gave this son of Bushranger an inspired ride. Hollinshead did wonders buying this yearling for 7,000gns. The soft ground made that debut run a test of stamina, which suited this two-year-old. The last two furlongs were run in a slow time and even from a low draw I would have concerns Stoneyford Lane may struggle for pace on this course which favours speedy types. That tardiness may have been due to inexperience but I would have reservations. If betting, you may get much greater odds in running and hope the leaders tire and he runs on near the line. I wouldn't bet on this horse unless the going was very testing.      

Our Greta hails from Michael Appleby's stable. He is a talented trainer and knows the score with his juveniles. This American-bred, grey daughter of Exchange Rate has a stiff task even from a favourable draw. This turning course is all about speed and few horses making their racecourse bow are wise enough to start on terms or handle sharp bends. Not a horse I would bet today.

Conclusion: To be fair this doesn't look a vintage Lily Agness. I would focus on the favourites: Fiery Character, Copper Knight, and Awesome Allan. The tissue prices suggest there isn't much value here. Fiery Character has plenty of pace and will most likely try to lead. The form of that race is still difficult to assess and you have to consider that he was something of a surprise winner on debut. Copper Knight has the best form and should travel well. He was a little wayward at Windsor when shying away from the whip, which may be  a concern. At short odds you can't afford to have any doubts and although I fancy this horse to win I would need an each-way price to be tempted. That doesn't look unlikely. Awesome Allan was put in his place by Copper Knight. It was a difficult task to haul a 6lb penalty and bookmakers illustrated that point by his odds. Now on level terms, there is hope he can challenge Hugo Palmer's juvenile. Awesome Allan could prove value. The major hindrance is a wide draw. It isn't beyond the realms he could make a bold bid to the rail being fast from the stalls on previous starts. Players may chance their luck that he can sit handy and without the burden of the penalty may have each-way claims.

* NR - Imdancinwithurwife

  

Tuesday, 5 May 2015

2:10 Chester Racing Tips (6th May) STELLAR GROUP LILY AGNES CONDITIONS STAKES (Plus 10 Race)


A Conditions Stakes race over 5f 16y on good to soft going. Good prize money with £20,000 guaranteed and over £12,000 to the victor. From an original thirteen entrants nine take part: six colts, three fillies. Half a dozen winners, a trio unbeaten.

Last year Mukhmal won this race on his second start after victorious on debut. Mark Johnston's colt was made 4/1 for the Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) at Royal Ascot but disappointed. His best performance came in the Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) when fourth, beaten less than three lengths.

Astley Hall defied his inexperience on debut at Redcar to win in the style of a fair juvenile. Racing in the colours of David Armstrong, this chestnut son of Dutch Art is a home bred out of a winning mare similarly owned and trained. Richard Fahey trains his two year olds to run well on debut - a point exemplified by his statistics. However, this February foal veered markedly to his left [from a wide draw] at Redcar but had the talent to catch his foe and although looking rather unaware of what racing is all about ran to the line with purpose. The form of that race has been franked. Furthermore, this good-looking colt is likely to improve. A low draw is particularly important on Chester's turning track and stall five is just fair. He most certainly wouldn't want to be tardy from the stalls but those cobwebs are likely to have been blown away on that racecourse bow. 

Rah Rah hasn't been seen for over one month since winning over 5f on debut at Kempton. It was a day where Mark Johnston's stable made the headlines with three two year old winners. Clearly Kingsley House have made it their business - with a larger string of juveniles - to show the way. This stable have a lot of very expensive horses and it shows in their physicality - big, strong, beautiful. This daughter of Lonhro (AUS) out of a Group placed mare. She won well on debut by just under four lengths. The form of that race has taken a knock with the second struggling to win. A filly with ability.

Silver Swings was very well backed on debut and won in a race that will turn out a few winners. David Evans grey colt, a son of Zebedee, has a plum draw in stall one and was sharp away at Windsor on his first start so he is most likely to take advantage of this favoured position. He looks a great purchase at 17,000 [yearling]. Connections have high hopes this two year old is heading for Royal Ascot and a bold show will be needed to justify those ambitions. 

Lone Irish raider An Duine Uasal heads from County Kildare to the Roodee. Adrian Keatley is owner-trainer and a cheap yearling buy at just 5,000. This bay colt won on his second start and wouldn't have any problems with the ground. The blinkers have been applied for the first time no doubt in an effort to hit the gates running. 

Bill Turner hasn't made a mark with this year's crop of two year olds and the majority have shown limited ability. Thee And Me wasn't fancied on debut and after showing pace faded out of contention. The form of that race has been franked to some extent. This son of Canford Cliffs was a big drifter in the betting second start in a four-horse race at Wolverhampton. It looked a poor race for a maiden. Turner's charge travelled with panache, winning with ease at odds of 18/1. He won in something next to a canter which sounds impressive however I just think it was a akin to an egg and spoon race. The betting suggests bookmakers have similar thoughts. I'd take a watching brief. 

Mick Appleby is a talented trainer, the type to prove he can go places and City Of Stars jumped in the deep end when making his debut at Stakes class, taking on a previous winner in Ravehoe, trained by Mark Johnston. This Irish bred son of Lilbourne Lad was well backed that day and I have little doubt the stable fancied him to go very well. He was bustled along for mot of the way and given a pretty hard race for a horse having its formative start. I wouldn't expected this bay colt to improve a great deal. The form looks fair although I just wonder if he will be quite pacey enough to stick with a few of these and a wide draw doesn't help. 

Eve Johnson Houghton knows her horses and always has a fair two year old in the ranks. In Haste is an Irish bred son of Clodovil out of a winning mare who was trounced when tried at Group class. This grey colt was purchased by the trainer at the yearling sales for 16,000. The debut at Bath was in a very restricted race type and pretty ordinary contest. I imagine connections were disappointed not to win that day because I'm sure they expected a tidy victory. In Haste had little luck stuck behind a wall of horses and rallied well in the closing stages with John Fahey vigorous in the saddle, realising he could win if not running out of time. He finished an unlucky second. This is a rise in class and more is needed. 

Fashionable Spirit is an Irish bred daughter of Invincible Spirit who cost 85,000 at the yearling sales. She ran well on debut at Chelmsford City behind Silk Bow, who won well but showed little on debut in the Brocklesby Stakes. Time may tell that was a fair race, and finishing second, in front of Anwar who was beaten easily by Rah Rah, shows ability although this is a stiff contest.

David Evans has a second representative in Nag's Wag who ran at the weekend at Stakes level after a debut win at Bath at odds of 16/1. This daughter of Approve ran well at Salisbury, Sunday, if not showing a little too much pace and perhaps not finishing her race. This January foal is a compact horse, with a fluent stride. She has a wide draw but could well hold a decent position. 

Conclusion: A tricky race to make me want to rush down the bookmakers for a mega bet. Stakes races are difficult to assess with progressive juveniles, winners that have not been tested. Chester throws into the mix a draw that can define your chance - win, lose or draw. A low stall can be a marked advantage to a horse with pace. Silver Wings is likely to hold his rail position and if a few of the fancied runners with wide draws have any issues it will make their life difficult. Astley Hall is a good-looking colt and could be a nice two year old but needs to be wiser today. A tardy start would make this a tall order. Rah Rah has a good draw and will be battling for the lead. A watching race to enjoy.