Showing posts with label Nags Wag. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nags Wag. Show all posts

Tuesday, 5 May 2015

2:10 Chester Racing Tips (6th May) STELLAR GROUP LILY AGNES CONDITIONS STAKES (Plus 10 Race)


A Conditions Stakes race over 5f 16y on good to soft going. Good prize money with £20,000 guaranteed and over £12,000 to the victor. From an original thirteen entrants nine take part: six colts, three fillies. Half a dozen winners, a trio unbeaten.

Last year Mukhmal won this race on his second start after victorious on debut. Mark Johnston's colt was made 4/1 for the Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) at Royal Ascot but disappointed. His best performance came in the Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) when fourth, beaten less than three lengths.

Astley Hall defied his inexperience on debut at Redcar to win in the style of a fair juvenile. Racing in the colours of David Armstrong, this chestnut son of Dutch Art is a home bred out of a winning mare similarly owned and trained. Richard Fahey trains his two year olds to run well on debut - a point exemplified by his statistics. However, this February foal veered markedly to his left [from a wide draw] at Redcar but had the talent to catch his foe and although looking rather unaware of what racing is all about ran to the line with purpose. The form of that race has been franked. Furthermore, this good-looking colt is likely to improve. A low draw is particularly important on Chester's turning track and stall five is just fair. He most certainly wouldn't want to be tardy from the stalls but those cobwebs are likely to have been blown away on that racecourse bow. 

Rah Rah hasn't been seen for over one month since winning over 5f on debut at Kempton. It was a day where Mark Johnston's stable made the headlines with three two year old winners. Clearly Kingsley House have made it their business - with a larger string of juveniles - to show the way. This stable have a lot of very expensive horses and it shows in their physicality - big, strong, beautiful. This daughter of Lonhro (AUS) out of a Group placed mare. She won well on debut by just under four lengths. The form of that race has taken a knock with the second struggling to win. A filly with ability.

Silver Swings was very well backed on debut and won in a race that will turn out a few winners. David Evans grey colt, a son of Zebedee, has a plum draw in stall one and was sharp away at Windsor on his first start so he is most likely to take advantage of this favoured position. He looks a great purchase at 17,000 [yearling]. Connections have high hopes this two year old is heading for Royal Ascot and a bold show will be needed to justify those ambitions. 

Lone Irish raider An Duine Uasal heads from County Kildare to the Roodee. Adrian Keatley is owner-trainer and a cheap yearling buy at just 5,000. This bay colt won on his second start and wouldn't have any problems with the ground. The blinkers have been applied for the first time no doubt in an effort to hit the gates running. 

Bill Turner hasn't made a mark with this year's crop of two year olds and the majority have shown limited ability. Thee And Me wasn't fancied on debut and after showing pace faded out of contention. The form of that race has been franked to some extent. This son of Canford Cliffs was a big drifter in the betting second start in a four-horse race at Wolverhampton. It looked a poor race for a maiden. Turner's charge travelled with panache, winning with ease at odds of 18/1. He won in something next to a canter which sounds impressive however I just think it was a akin to an egg and spoon race. The betting suggests bookmakers have similar thoughts. I'd take a watching brief. 

Mick Appleby is a talented trainer, the type to prove he can go places and City Of Stars jumped in the deep end when making his debut at Stakes class, taking on a previous winner in Ravehoe, trained by Mark Johnston. This Irish bred son of Lilbourne Lad was well backed that day and I have little doubt the stable fancied him to go very well. He was bustled along for mot of the way and given a pretty hard race for a horse having its formative start. I wouldn't expected this bay colt to improve a great deal. The form looks fair although I just wonder if he will be quite pacey enough to stick with a few of these and a wide draw doesn't help. 

Eve Johnson Houghton knows her horses and always has a fair two year old in the ranks. In Haste is an Irish bred son of Clodovil out of a winning mare who was trounced when tried at Group class. This grey colt was purchased by the trainer at the yearling sales for 16,000. The debut at Bath was in a very restricted race type and pretty ordinary contest. I imagine connections were disappointed not to win that day because I'm sure they expected a tidy victory. In Haste had little luck stuck behind a wall of horses and rallied well in the closing stages with John Fahey vigorous in the saddle, realising he could win if not running out of time. He finished an unlucky second. This is a rise in class and more is needed. 

Fashionable Spirit is an Irish bred daughter of Invincible Spirit who cost 85,000 at the yearling sales. She ran well on debut at Chelmsford City behind Silk Bow, who won well but showed little on debut in the Brocklesby Stakes. Time may tell that was a fair race, and finishing second, in front of Anwar who was beaten easily by Rah Rah, shows ability although this is a stiff contest.

David Evans has a second representative in Nag's Wag who ran at the weekend at Stakes level after a debut win at Bath at odds of 16/1. This daughter of Approve ran well at Salisbury, Sunday, if not showing a little too much pace and perhaps not finishing her race. This January foal is a compact horse, with a fluent stride. She has a wide draw but could well hold a decent position. 

Conclusion: A tricky race to make me want to rush down the bookmakers for a mega bet. Stakes races are difficult to assess with progressive juveniles, winners that have not been tested. Chester throws into the mix a draw that can define your chance - win, lose or draw. A low stall can be a marked advantage to a horse with pace. Silver Wings is likely to hold his rail position and if a few of the fancied runners with wide draws have any issues it will make their life difficult. Astley Hall is a good-looking colt and could be a nice two year old but needs to be wiser today. A tardy start would make this a tall order. Rah Rah has a good draw and will be battling for the lead. A watching race to enjoy. 

Saturday, 2 May 2015

2:40 Salisbury Racing Tips (3rd May) BETFRED "RACING´S BIGGEST SUPPORTER" FILLIES´ CONDITIONS STAKES


A Fillies' Conditions Stakes over 5f  on firm going. Six two year olds take part: three raced, including two debut winners, and a trio on their race course bow . Interesting that the winners carry no penalty for winning at class 5, while those making their race course debutes have a three pound allowance. Both winners have been entered to run in the Lily Agnes (6th May), which they are unlikely to compete [although you can never quite tell with David Evans]. 

Last year this race was won by Tiggy Wiggy [pictured] on her second start after an effortless victory at Kempton on the first day of the 2014 Flat season. Her greatest achievement - from a string of wins - came when taking the Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1). Ultimately, crowned Cartier Champion Two-Year-Old Filly. An exceptional talent.  

Great Page will start a short priced favourite after a stylish debut win at Windsor two weeks ago. This bay filly was made market leader that day and although it was seemingly a lowly race judge by class I could well turn out to be a fair juvenile contest. There were a number of nice physical specimens, which says something as fillies look good, bad and ugly. This Irish bred daughter of Roderic O'Connor ran well, held up just off the page, which was set by one of today's opposition, a good number too keen throughout the race. Middleham Park Racing will be holding their breath in hope she can emulate last year's victress. It is never wise to limit the talent of a winning thoroughbred. Great Page showed ample promise at Windsor and if aspiration of Royal Ascot are to be realised she will need to win well. 

Hannon has a second representative, Illuminate, a debutante sired by Zoffany out of an unraced mare. She was purchased at the yearling sales by Peter & Ross Doyle Bloodstock for £95,000. This bay filly is in the ownership Denford Stud. Hannon has been known to pull a few aces from his sleeves when it comes to talented ''second strings'' turning up to spoil the party of favourite backers. It is unlikely to be the case today but if seriously backed take note.

John Bridger isn't known for training two year olds and those which could be termed as talented are very very few. Wait long enough and a good horse may come along, I can imagine connections hold those thoughts about Stormflower. This daughter of Arcano may have been a cheap yearling purchase at 4,200GNS. She looks a good purchase. A filly with size and scope to progress with racing, her Achilles' heal was her delight in pulling for the majority of the race. Make no mistake, this juvenile has ability and if learning to settle could make her presence felt. The betting will be skewed because Great Page gave his April foal a fair beating. In addition, being trained by what some would consider a ''less fashionable stable'' she could well be tagged as the outsider of the field. Stakes races can be competitive affairs - you can never quite tell who is eyeing-up the prize. If huge odds are available on the exchanges I'd be tempted to have a small bet and try and lay at considerably sorter odds in-running. Interesting.

David Evans is a shrewd trainer who knows the strength and weakness of his juveniles. Nag's Wag is an Irish bred daughter of Approve and purchased cheaply by the trainer at the yearling sales. This January foal wasn't fancied in the betting on debut at Bath but showed a professional attitude, always in front rank and battled to regain the lead in the closing stages. That was a very restricted race type which may hold the form down. The second that day - Rogue's Gallery - was second next start but it was a similarly race type, although the winner is fair. Once again, it is difficult to limit a winning horse. On balance, I would imagine Nag's Wag is set a fair test by the likely favourite. 

Charlie Hills has sent out a couple of two year olds to date and it is interesting Komedy is starting her career at stakes class. It is probably a sign his daughter of Kodiac will be victorious this formative season. She is half-sister to Jane's Memory, trained by Rae Guest, who has been placed at Group 2. Komedy cost 70,000eur at the yearling sales. The betting is the best guide and if priced 13/2 & less has fair win and place claims.

Sixties Sue is trained by Mick Channon, who has been relatively quiet this early season. This daughter of Sixties Icon is out of a mare similarly trained and full sister to Scargill who wasn't the best talent but a gritty character winning twice at plating class. Sixties Sue cost 40,000gns at the yearling sales. The betting is the best guide. If priced over 8/1 I would take a watching brief. 

Conclusion: A fascinating race. Stakes race can often seem predictably straight forward - other times an enigma. Great Page could well start 1/2f. She sets the standard and after a stylish debut could be earmarked for Roayl Ascot. She is a good-looking filly and with Tiggy Wiggy winning this race last punters will have a bee in their bonnet. The horse to beat but not one I would back at odds-on. Nag's Wag didn't win a great race on debut but win she did. On balance, I would consider she has something to prove but it pays to respect a winner. The debutantes are best watched, especially if priced outside 13/2 SP. Stormflower is one of those horses that excites and traumatises in equal measure when betting. John Bridger may have a horse with an element of ability but will she pull keenly as seen on debut? That wouldn't help her cause. She has pace and if stealing an easy lead could take some catching. If touching fancy odds on the exchanges she must be worth a small bet and try to lay your stake in-running and hope the wind is blowing in the right direction. Being beaten by Great Page predicts she could be over priced [contrast theory]. It would be a speculative punt at 20/1+.