An intriguing maiden. At most a four-horse race. Not really telling you much there. Sirajiah was fancied to go well on debut for William Haggas but needed to be flying to beat WhatdoIwantthatfor. I'm not sure this drop back to 5f will suit. However, with a Lowther Stakes (Group 2) and Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) entry has to be respected.
Little Voice has been given a string of lofty entries but I can't help thinking this daughter of Scat Daddy is better on the gallops. The step up to 6f at Windsor, perhaps, didn't suit and this bay filly was put in her place by Justice Lass.
Rosie Royce and Apasiona contested the same race over 5f at Sandown. The former trained by Henry Candy was fancied in the betting but had no luck in running. She coasted home and is clearly capable of much better. I'd expect a bold show.
Apasiona is held in some regard by Alan McCabe although his two-year-olds have been pretty poor this season and with a few gambles going astray I have the feeling their string hasn't lived up to earlier hopes.
I'm pretty sure connections of Sirajiah and Little Voice will be expecting a win. Little Voice is held in high regard but has had her chances and I would take a watching brief. Sirajiah will be primed. I wonder if 5f will be a touch too fast. On statistics Rosie Royce has the best chance - decent win and place claims although lacking Group entries.
At the odds I would have a small each way bet on Rosie Royce if priced 13/2 & less SP (no bet outside this guide). At 5/1 should be a no-lose bet if placed and hopeful of more.
5:20 Newcastle - A very restricted race type. These limited races often go to a form horses and Dark Confidant is likely to go well for Richard Guest. This son of Royal Applause ran well on debut - traveled with ease - but slightly disappointed when dropped back to 6f. That shorter trip tapped his pace and probably made for a weak finish. I'd expect this bay gelding to travel with authority and touch shorter odds in running. Must have strong each way claims. Interesting to see how Micheal Dods' debutante goes.
Wayside Magic is a cheap purchase and gelded. Denton Hall have good place claims with their two-year-old debutantes and they often go well at Newcastle and like softer going. I'd probably watch this horse unless 16/1+. Dark Confidant is a decent each-way bet. Might be worth a small rev f/c with Wayside Magic to pay a lot of money.
7:10 Kempton - Nemoralia is held in high regard by Jeremy Noseda and withdrawn last time which suggests connections want to make this race count. This daughter of More Than Ready made a promising debut and sterling second start at Newmarket. She is sure to run well but the down side is the price. Not much meat on the bone. I'd hold out and hope this youngster drifts in the betting and step in if 1/1 is available.
An outsider which may be worth a small bet is Henry Spiller's Star Glimmer. This daughter of Zodiac is a cheap buy for the rookie trainer and the only sign of ability is the knowledge she has been given a stakes entry. At odds of 100/1 she may get a place.
2:00 Chepstow - Rosie Royce 5/1 [Paddy Power] small ew 3rd
5:20 Newcastle - Dark Confidant 4/1 (NAP) decent ew bet 3rd
7:10 Kempton - Nemoralia 8/11 bet if evens is available 1st (touched evens exchanges)
Small ew treble
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 6f on good to soft going. Eight runners in this fairly restricted two-year-old contest weighted with regard to sales price - maximum £25,000. All colts/gelding bar one filly. Only a few pounds separate top to bottom weight. The majority lightly raced with a couple of debutantes.
Run To Rio was fancied on debut but was either outpaced or inexperienced. This son of Captain Rio was the lesser fancied of two juveniles for Dods, when showing improved form over an extra furlong at Newcastle, caught on the line by the well-backed favourite. The form of that race looks fair for this level and on breeding the going should suit.
Denton Hall field stablemate and debutante Dark Command. This gelding is a son of Kheleyf, purchased at the yearling sales by the trainer for 9,000GNS. Dods can do well with his debutantes and a good number are placed. This stable often go better on soft ground so it wouldn't be a surprise to see them go well. With Run To Rio showing such promise last start I would favour that individual.
Dessert Rule wasn't fancied on debut for Jedd O'Keeffe. This son of Kheleyf was slow away and ran on in the closing stages when Ode To Evening cruised to a nine-length victory. Highbeck Racing are loyal patrons of the stable and although their juveniles are likely to progress second start this bay colt is best watched.
Richard Fahey is a class trainer of two-year-olds and probably the best at priming juveniles to win on debut. Very few handlers come close statistically when comparing first to second start. Ingleby Valley was relatively fancied on debut at Carlisle over 5f. This chestnut son of Sahkee's Secret showed signs of inexperience in the paddock but ran well when playing second fiddle to Moondyne Joe. I don't think that was the strongest of heats, which isn't a surprise when it was similarly a maiden auction. The leaders looked to go a stride too fast and fell in a hole and the first three came from well off the pace. This home bred should like the going and appreciate the extra furlong.
Richard Guest often slips under the radar, especially with two-year-olds, but he is a talented trainer and gives a very honest review on his website. Lydia's Place has served him well this season with three tidy wins after needing the run on debut. I must admit Dark Confidant caught the eye first start when sent off a 33/1 shot in what looked to be a pretty hot contest. This good-looking gelding, a son of Royal Applause, traveled with great gusto when ridden by Joey Haynes and had most in trouble until tiring in the final furlong. The third has a level of ability and the winner won on debut for Sir Michael Stoute and will be racing at Group class before long. Guest drops this gelding back a furlong and this is a drop in grade. This shorter trip may take the edge off his natural pace but he should run to line and by all accounts run a big race.
Domineeno looks second string for Ingmanthorpe Stables.
Keith Dalgleish fields a couple of runners including the only filly Candy Hill. This bay daughter of Jeremy has been fancied on both starts but disappointed on debut. However, she ran with more credit second start when losing to Mr Chuckles, who was 25/1. In truth, that looked a pretty moderate race. She steps back up to 6f. I would prefer others.
Aussie Express cost £5,000 at the yearling sales. Equus Syndicate have done well with Glenrowen Rose, who won for the yard and far from disgraced when sixth in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2). Probably best watched unless seriously backed.
Conclusion: This looks a fair race for the grade. Unless one of the two debutantes has ability [potentially both second string] this is most likely out of four horses. Candy Hill races against the boys and while she improved last start it was rather a motley affair. Possible. I'd rather watch. Ingleby Valley ran well enough on debut although the front runners went a stride too fast and the complexion of the race changed dramatically in the closing stages. This step up in distance should be a positive and the ground will suit. On statistics he holds respectable win and place claims. Run To Rio is a straightforward juvenile and put up a bold show last start when nabbed on the line. Must run well and hold every chance and a sound bet if each way odds are available. I was taken with Dark Confidant on debut. He looks a great buy at 4,000GNS. In some respects I would be more confident if running over 7f because he showed very good pace that day. You have to trust the trainer knows best and I do with Richard Guest. The testing ground should help and this bay gelding could well improve as the stable's two-year-old often do second start. If touching each way odds should go well.
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6:10 Beverley - White Bullet has run well on both starts. Very few two-year-olds start their career at Listed Class. This daughter of Exceed And Excel wandered under pressure at Newmarket when stepping up to 6f. Kevin Ryan's charge should have won if keeping straight and by all accounts is a pattern winner running in a maiden. Unless disaster strikes - she will win.
6:20 Windsor - Justice Lass is held in some regard by connections, racing in the familiar silks of Robert Ng. As noted on Group Horse, this daughter of Canford Cliffs held a Listed entry before making her debut at this course over the minimum distance. This bay filly ran on all too late, which was due to an insufficient trip and then ran in another hot contest when facing Ballydoyle, who was a narrow loser in the Chesham at Royal Ascot. David Elsworth must feel this 6f is the ideal for now after showing good pace last time out at Newmarket. There was no disgrace in finishing fourth. Little Voice is the major opponent but if making Justice Lass an each way bet - I'd take the challenge.
Couple ew trebles -
1:55 Ayr - Run To Rio or Dark Confidant 3rd (11/2)
6:10 Beverley - White Bullet 2nd (1/8) Unbelievable
6:20 Windsor - Justice Lass 1st 13/8
