There's Value to be had in this Year's St Leger as O'Brien Targets a Super Six

We’re fast-approaching the off of the 2018 St Leger Stakes yet traders seem at a loss to get their ante-post market in good order with a difference of opinion between the major betting firms paving the way for value. That hasn’t gone unnoticed by eagle-eyed punters eager to get in early and secure the best price possible on their selection. 

The group one flat race run over 1m 6f on the turf of Doncaster racecourse was first contested way back in 1776 – won by Allabaculia – currently puts forward £700,000 worth of prize money, with almost £400,000 of that delivered to connections of the winner.

Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore teamed up to great effect last year when producing champion Capri, who won ahead of Crystal Ocean for Sir Michael Stoute and Jim Crowley, the runner-up edged by half a length. Stradivarius filled the major places, ending a short-head back in what was a gripping bunch finish. Neutrals will be hoping for a repeat of that drama in this renewal.

Capri was a winning favourite 12 months ago and moved O’Brien’s record to five St Leger titles following success with Milan in 2001, Brian Boru 2003, Scorpion 2005 and Leading Light 2013. Impressive, but the Irishman still has some way to go if he’s to get anywhere near leading trainer John Scott who won 16 times between 1827 and 1862.

In the early exchanges, traders have thrown their weight behind another from the O’Brien string in Kew Gardens. The three-year-old colt brings a record of three wins and three placed efforts from nine previous starts with his medals including the Queens Vase at Ascot and Prix Paris at Longchamp.

Is the hat-trick on? The latest horse racing betting with William Hill has the bay marked at 3/1 – better than the 7/2 generally available. It’s away from the jolly where the indecision lies, however. Wells Farhh Go rates as a 7/1 second favourite with some while others have the same runner at 8/1. Latrobe is 8/1 third. 

Others in the betting priced a bit bigger than they probably should be are Forever Together – 10/1 trading, 8/1 the general feeling, and 14/1 on The Pentagon who’s a 12/1 poke. The latter is another O’Brien hopeful who travels to the South Yorkshire course with form onside. 

The three-year-old colt has won twice and placed three times in eight starts, including a bronze medal in the group one Racing Post Trophy Stakes at Doncaster over a mile. That’s sure to impress each-way backers who will get place terms of 1/5 the odds the best three home.

Australia on target for Juddmonte International

With the British Flat racing season well past the midway stage of 2014 the York Ebor Festival, featuring the top class Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes, is drawing nearer, this year promising to feature the outstanding three-year-old middle-distance colt Australia, trained by Aidan O’Brein, writes Elliot Slater.

The International is always one of the most eagerly anticipated races of the year, a clash between the best three-year-old’s and older horses in training, often attracting the cream of the crop from not only Britain and Ireland, but also from France, and occasionally from even further afield. If Australia does indeed take his chance in the 10 furlong contest he will be expected by most experts to start at odds-on on Betfair, despite the strength of the opposition that could include such as Mukhadram, Noble Mission, Trading Leather, and The Grey Gatsby.

Australia, a son of Galileo, proved himself a smart performer last term when landing two of his three races as a juvenile, including a Group 3 success at Leopardstown in September that made plenty of good judges sit up and take notice, marking him down as a potential Derby winner. The Ballydoyle-based colt did little wrong on his seasonal reappearance when running over an inadequate mile in the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket in May, staying on strongly under pressure inside the final furlong under Joseph O’Brien to finish a close third behind the surprise winner Night of Thunder and the outstanding three-year-old miler of this season, Kingman.

His 2000 Guineas run unsurprisingly hinted at much better to come over a longer trip and Australia duly started a warm favourite for the Investec Derby at Epsom on June 7, never giving his backers a moment’s concern as he glided around Tattenham Corner before coasting into the lead a furlong from home, eventually going on to beat the gallant Kingston Hill with plenty in hand by a length-and-a-quarter,

His subsequent victory in the Irish Derby was little more than an exercise canter when Kingston Hill was a late withdrawal leaving O’Brien’s star to beat two inferior stable companions without turning a hair. It won’t be that easy at York, and with the likes of Eclipse Stakes winner Mukhadram, subsequently an excellent third in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot behind the brilliant Taghrooda, the much improved Noble Mission (a Group 1 winner this term), and the impressive French Derby winner, Kevin Ryan’s locally trained The Grey Gatsby amongst his potential rivals, any flaws in Australia’s ability to perform at the highest level over just 10 furlongs could well be exposed.

For his part, Aidan O’Brien appears to have few concerns on that score, pointing out that his charge had the pace to go very close over a mile in the 2000 Guineas and is one of the classiest thoroughbreds he has ever handled.

It all points to Australia in the Juddmonte International at York on August 20, a race that looks well worth waiting for.

Light set to shine in Ascot Gold Cup

If you believe in follow the market signals then there is only one horse you would want to back on Thursday 19^th June in the Ascot Gold Cup, and that is Leading Light, last year’s impressive Aidan O’Brien-trained St Leger winner, writes Elliot Slater.

The racing betting market has been all about the 2013 classic winner who saw off the classy Oaks winner Talent to score on Town Moor last September, having previously won over two miles at last year’s Royal Ascot fixture showing bags of stamina and a willing attitude to win on quick ground. Those attributes may very well stand him in good stead over the marathon two-and-a-half-mile trip of the showcase race at the wonderful five-day fixture that starts on June 17.

Prior to his seasonal reappearance at Navan last month Leading Light was available at up to 4/1 in the ante-post racing betting for the Gold Cup, but those odds quickly disappeared as the son of Montjeu delivered a commanding performance to easily account for previous Irish St Leger winner Royal Diamond by three lengths.

With the vibes coming out of Ballydoyle suggesting their stayer is doing everything right in his preparation for the big day, punters have well and truly latched on to Leading Light who has been forced down through all rates and is now a rock solid 13/8 market leader (with Bet365) to give O’Brien his five success in the race in the last eight years; four of those wins came with the mighty Yeats who landed the premier stayers’ contest four years in a row between 2006 – 2009.

If he does justify his lofty market position Leading Light will be seen by many as the potential villain of the piece if he lowers the colours of The Queen’s beloved filly Estimate, who brought the house down at Royal Ascot last year when giving her owner-breeder her first success in the race after more than half a century of trying to land the prize. Estimate has only had one run since then and that proved disappointing when she filled just seventh place behind Royal Diamond in the Group 3 Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup in October.

A minor setback and being somewhat slower than usual to come to hand has caused the royal filly to be absent from racing so far this season, and while master trainer Sir Michael Stoute has admitted recently to feeling the pressure to have her ready to defend her crown reports suggest the five-year-old is working nicely again and should give a good account of herself.

Another popular horse who features prominently in the racing betting for the coveted Ascot Gold Cup is former England football legend Michael Owen’s home-bred Brown Panther, really impressive when slamming a field of useful stayers in the Group 3 Henry II Stakes at Sandown in May, whilst Marco Botti’s Tac De Boistron, winner of the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes at Ascot in April and a good runner-up since at York in the Yorkshire Cup, is another serious contender in what promises to be a tremendous contest.