Tuesday 27 October 2020

5:20 Southwell Racing Tips (27th October)

A pretty low-class race over 6f.  

The betting suggests this is a five-horse race. The Karl Burke two-year-olds are still, in my opinion, out of form. Capla Dream looked almost a certainty when going clear of the field over this course when over 7f. Dropping back in distance, this daughter of Dream Ahead looks to enjoy the surface and should go well. 

Black Sparrow is a speedy horse who has run consistently over five-furlongs, although running well on debut at six furlongs. This black filly won well on her fourth start and didn't do anything wrong last time out at Wolverhampton. A win penalty didn't seem to diminish her pace last time ridden by Grace McEntee who is enjoying this partnership. There is a slight concern the win penalty will be a burden on this surface over this extended distance. However, Black Sparrow is likely to give a good account and could well hold a healthy advantage in the final furlong. 

Seaclusion has run three times. She finished last on her debut when a 66/1 shot at Goodwood. Then running well when finishing third at Newcastle when beaten by Light Refrain who s a class act. However, she was flatter by the proximity to the winner. Last time out, connections chances their luck competing in the Redcar Two Year Old Trophy. She was never dangerous. A difficult horse to assess. 

Perfect Sign has run six times, her first four races in Ireland when in training with J P Murtagh. Now with Michael Dods, finishing second to Light Refrain in the same Newcastle where Seaclusion raced. However, she ran no race when competing in a nursery at the same course when down the field. 

Robert Cowell's representative, Sealed Offer, owned by Cheveley Park Stud, who employs the cheekpieces for the first time. Beaten on three starts, by similar distances, and big prices.

One horse that may have a hope at big odds is Gay Kelleway's *Piranhadrama who was half fancied on debut when drifting from 8/1 - 11/1. This daughter of Heeraat was slow away and had no chance thereafter. Today, a 33/1 shot, it will be interesting to see if there is any money for this bay filly. 

Summary: This looks a tricky race to find the answer. Black Sparrow will give it a good go and could well have a big lead into the final furlong. But will she be able to lead to the line? The Burke stable seems out of form and Capla Dream although respected isn't a horse I would want to bet at short odds. I'm not sure what to think about Seaclusion, Perfect Sign and Sealed Offer. Piranhadrama may hold claims at huge odds. I think Black Sparrow will go well but it will be all or nothing. I couldn't bet in this race.