Thursday 2 March 2017

5:45 Newcastle Racing Tips (3rd March) MAIDEN FILLIES' STAKES (PLUS 10 RACE) (Class 5) (3yo) Winner £3,073 8 runners 1m5y Standard ATR

A Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10) over 1m 5y on Standard going.

Eight three-years-olds take part over this straight mile. 

This could, potentially, be a hot race with the Plus 10 being up for grabs. The betting suggests this is a four-horse race. Not that the betting always tells the story, of course. 

I will give a quick rundown of these. 

Kevin Ryan has Eyes Of Asha making her debut for loyal patron T A Rahman. This daughter of Redoute's Choice was a fantastic yearling purchase at 75,000E because she was sold at two for 775,000E. Purchased by Stephen Hillen. A colossal sum of money, and it looks like some pin hooker had it right off. Ryan is capable of winning with his debutantes although they can be a touch difficult to regard at times. With this mighty price tag for all to see I imagine connections will be wanting to enjoy a pretty smart performance.  

Mark Johnston fields Fiendish. This daughter of Street Cry is out of a dam called Evil. Fiendish is related to Tiz Wonderful. This homebred is well owned and pretty fancied in the betting at the time of writing at 5-1. Johnston is a trainer I respect, but one I find quite tricky to call with his debutants. As I always say, he has easy winners or poor losers. I'd take a watching brief. 

Hot Natured is interesting. Karl Burke is a fantastic trainer and if you take a look at his performance it isn't difficult to find how to win good money on his horses. John Dance owns this daughter of Canford Cliffs out of a mare called Teddy Bears Picnic. She cost £65,000 at the yearling sales. It was interesting how weak Hot Natured was in the market on her racecourse bow over course and distance. That had much to do with William Haggas' Signe who, if I remember correctly, cost over 1 million euros. She was very well backed and Hot Natured drifted to 12-1. I suspect, the way she ran, that connections quite fancied their chances that day although fearful of a potentially smart opponent. Burke's charge was beaten fair and square at the line. That initial experience will see her well today and if drifting in the betting to an each-way price (yes, I know it looks next to impossible) would be a good bet. 

John Gosden has teamed up well with Godolphin. Lady Hester has raced three times and a touch disappointing. An easily beaten favourite on debut, still out of the frame second and third start when no bigger than 5-1. She isn't a good horse being a few lengths behind a winner rated 71. This step up in distance may be something to grasp hold but probably a horse for handicaps unless she has been disappointing on course so far.

Magical Approach is priced on this racecourse bow as if not at all fancied. David Simcock is a talent and if the money comes worthy of respect. If a huge price at the off she must be limited or in need of the race.

KeithDalgleish can ready a debutante and he has done well for the owners of R U Mine [Wldspec Glasgow Limited]. This daughter of Elzaam cost just 11,000E when purchased at two. On balance, I would take a watching brief. 

Rosemay and Sulafah are best watched. 

Conclusion: If money talks there is a decent debutante chomping at the bit. Eyes Of Asha cost serious pounds, shilling and pence (I mean euros). A price tag of 775,000E is enough to make a buyer, trainer, owner, jockey and punters to think seriously about winning that all-important first race. That is particularly true of a filly. Definitely, a horse to respect although I am not keen betting debutantes at the best of times especially at cramped odds. Interesting horse to consider and she may well be smart. Fiendish represents Mark Johnston and a mighty owner. I find him difficult to judge with debutantes and would take a watching brief. I'm hoping there is a wealth of money for the favourite and Hot Natured drifts markedly in the betting. I think she will go well whatever price but if touching 7/2+ I'd be tempted to go each-way even if losing cash if placed. Intriguing race.