Wednesday 23 November 2016

5:25 Chelmsford 2YO Racing Tips (24th Nov) TOTEPOOLLIVEINFO.COM FOR RACING RESULTS MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

A Maiden Fillies Stakes (Plus 10) over 7f on Standard going.

Quite a large field of thirteen juveniles which I will cut down in number. 

Hugo Palmer fields Al Mayda. This chestnut filly is a daughter of Distorted Humor. This American-bred wasn't sent through the sales ring and adorns the familiar silks of Al Shaqab Racing Ltd. She started her career at Newcastle when racing over 7f. Pretty weak in the betting for such a big stable, which was due to a couple of well-fancied horses in opposition. There was a lot to like about that racecourse bow. From a statistical point of view, this filly holds decent each-way claims. 

A few in opposition. 

Cercle D'or wasn't fancied in the betting when making her debut at Kempton over one mile. This daughter of Acclamation wasn't beaten far although it was something of a blanket finish. Being related to Golden Horn is no bad starting point and racing in the Sangster silks will tug at the heartstrings of many a punter of old. Not the easiest filly to assess. If in need of the debut and today priced 13/2 & less SP could be in the mix. If weak in the betting I would take a watching brief. 

Ebqaa is a home-bred daughter of Cape Cross. I always take a second glance when Marcus Tregoning trains one for Hamdan Al Maktoum although he isn't a handler I associate with debut winners. Mind you, it isn't beyond the realms. If a true talent, this juvenile may have claims but I suspect this bay will need the run. If seriously backed it would bring greater hope although he still offers a pretty poor win race to be fair. 

Sir Michael Stoute fields Freediver who makes her second start after being relatively fancied on debut at Leicester. A slow start didn't help her cause, then tiring into ninth at the line. More is needed here. If strong in the betting, this daughter of Bated Breath may have a fighting chance. However, if priced bigger than 13/2 & less SP I would expect others to prevail.

Amanda Perrett's two-year-olds have been showing some promise this latter part of the season and My Lady Marie belied her odds of 66/1 when finishing fifth. If seriously backed I would take note. However, if priced in double figures I'd consider those at the head of the betting.

John Gosden has My Rosie to accompany Cercle D'or. Interesting to note she is owned by Lord Lloyd-Webber who doesn't have too many hopeless cases in his string. This bay filly is a daughter of Redoute's Choice costing 400,000G at the yearling sales. The mare, My Branch, was a talented horse being placed at Group 1. My Rosie was half fancied on debut but always in rear - finishing last. It is strange principle but I often say that the worse a horse looks on debut often the better they turn out to be. This April foal needs to find ample improvement but it's possible. At present, she is a 14/1 shot. However, if backed I would take note because such a large price tag and significant ownership tell me this bay filly may show more today. 

Interesting to note Oberyn was priced 5/2 on debut for Sylvester Kirk. The stable have done exceptionally well with their juveniles this season. This daughter of Holy Roman Emperor finished last when making her debut at Newcastle although not beaten too far. In truth, that was a poor race with the winner having an official rating of just 55. It was an auction race which is a markedly lower class than this race type. This looks a stiff ask.

Godolphin has plenty of horses to race and most are bred to be winners. Pure Shores is a daughter of Dubawi who cost a whopping 700,000G at the yearling sales. The mare was a very consistent horse, winning at Listed class but placed numerous times at Group level. Charlie Appleby can ready a debutante and you have to consider that many of these blue-blooded horses are sent out this time to win rather than gain valuable experience [obviously both are important]. Definitely a horse with an exceptional price tag. Worthy of respect. 

Conclusion: At the time of writing, this looks an open race and although horse racing tipsters will have picked out their favourites I would definitely let the betting settle before getting stuck in unless you are taking a big price and convinced your selection will be backed. 

The betting should eek out a few weak links. 

Al Mayda is likely to go well and if available at each-way odds would be a fair bet. Gosden's two are worthy of note. Cercle D'or has claims if priced 13/2 & less SP. I would definitely keep an eye on the betting for My Rosie. Well owned and very expensive purchase. That debut was too bad to be true. If drifting to big odds on the exchanges it may be worth placing a bet in the hope she is seriously backed. If the money comes, I'd expect to see a transformation. 

The betting should tell the story for Freediver and My Lady Marie. If priced 13/2 & less each hold each-way claims. I get a feeling both will be bigger odds. 

It is always difficult assessing the potential of a debutante and inexperience can be a stumbling block for the best juveniles. Pure Shores cost a huge sum and have a pedigree to suggest she has an ability. I doubt Appleby is sending her out for a run just to gain experience and I would put this filly high on the shortlist. 

Al Mayda and Pure Shores look the most likely. The former is worth an each-way if prices allow. My Rosie may be worth a speculative punt at big odds.