Wednesday 6 April 2016

1:50 Southwell Racing Tips (7th April) TOTEPOOL BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF NOVICE STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

An EBF Novice Stakes race over 5f on standard going. Nine two-year-olds take part: five colts, one gelding and three fillies. A mix of stables. Two horses have raced once. 

Mark Johnston has been in tremendous form and his juveniles have been firing on all cylinders. Rusumaat proved why is pays to be careful because however good a stable each horse should be judged on its merit as an individual. That colt drifted markedly in the betting - which rang alarm bells - and was never competitive. 

Mailshot hasn't tempered enthusiasm and priced even money at the time of writing. This home bred chestnut colt is a son of Hard Spun out of an unraced mare. The betting suggests this juvenile is fit and ready to go. Keep an eye on the betting. The stable have a very good line with multiple winners and if weak in the market it would be a concern. I wouldn't be betting at even money on a debutante unless I was convinced about its ability so a watching brief.

In many respects this doesn't look the easiest of races to assess and the betting although helpful may not tell the total story with a few of the debutantes. 

David Barron is an interesting trainer who has an excellent strike rate with his two-year-olds at this course. Wick Powell is a January foal, a son of Sakhee's Secret and 32,000EUR yearling in the ownership of Miss N J Barron. Debutantes fancied in the betting have pretty respectable win and place claims. One to take note of and if drifting out in price could well have each way claims and merit value. 

Bill Turner has had little to rave about with his juveniles this season, especially the major disappointment of his Brocklesby hope. Who Told Jo Jo is best watched after showing limited ability on his racecourse bow and behind Red Mohican.

Red Mohican was sent off 50/1 in a hot race, where Sutter County won with ease and looks a very talented horse. Phil McEntee's filly, a daughter of Harbour Watch, cost 12,000GNS as a yearling. A wide draw didn't help her cause at Wolverhampton and traffic problems hindered her chances of ever being competitive. This little filly was beaten a long was and needs to improve to figure here although the form of that first race is better than it looks and if starting better will run better than her odds. 

Tom Dascombe's two-year-olds have started this season much brighter than last and most have looked very well in their coats and clearly going well on the gallops. The Roaring Twenties syndicate have come out all guns blazing and The Fossil is another to represent this game bunch. This bay colt is a son of Bushranger out of a debut-winning mare who was Listed placed and campaigned at Group class. The betting is the best guide. If priced 7/1 and less has fair win and place claims. If weak in the market best watched. The stable do have a line with their juveniles so they should have a good idea of what this April foal can do (not quite two).

Richard Fahey has been a touch quiet with his two-year-olds this season. Vona is a bay filly sired by Dark Angel out of an unraced mare. She cost 15,000EUR at teh yearling sales. Fahey's two-year-olds can win at a price and his debutantes are generally fit and primed. If particularly weak in the betting I would take a watching brief but another if fancied has to be respected.   

The first juvenile of the season to run for Ann Duffiled. Poppy Pivot is a daughter of Pivotal and cost £18,000 at the yearling sales where she was purchased by her present owner Craig Buckingham. The stable don't have the best strike rate on debut although they can go well when priced 13/2 & less. The betting suggests this April foal with be a bigger price than not and best watched unless substantially backed.

Kevin Ryan is a trainer who can ready a juvenile to win on debut although a large number of their runners (about 40%) are priced 13/2. Not surprising that the majority of their winner are priced 13/2 and less. The betting is a very good indicator although they have debut winners priced up to 14/1. Percy Toplis is an American bred gelding by Kheleyf out of a poor mare. A cheap yearling buy at just 7,000GNS she is owned by the trainer's wife ( I think...Mrs J Ryan). The betting suggest this horse is not fancied. Money would bring more confidence.

Karl Burke is a trainer I have made a lot of money backing his two-year-olds over the years. He is an excellent trainer who delivers when expected. Graton is a February colt by Camacho is a owned and bred by P & L Partners. The mare was similarly own and trained by Linda Stubbs and pretty poor. The stable's debutantes can go well and if priced at 10/1 and less have respectable win and place claims. If weak in the betting I'd take a watching brief.

Conclusion: A funny old race in ways. Mailshot is short priced so plenty of punters shoveling coal on the fire and if going off a short price has to be respected. Johnston has such a line with their juveniles that if they are ultra confident you have to listen. Once again, if very weak in the betting I would stay clear. Not a bet for me at prohibitive odds simply because debutantes can prove hard work if at all inexperienced. Wick Powell has each way claims and if drifting to 8/1 - 10/1 (not over) would be of interest. The betting is the best guide to The Fossil, Vona, Poppy Pivot, Percy Toplis and Graton. The former hold claims if priced 7/1 and less. The later, Graton, if 10/1 and less. If all are weak in the betting I would watch them. Red Mohican may go better than the price although I think she will struggle to get a place. A tricky race in ways but interesting.