Thursday 3 September 2015

6:55 Kempton (4th Sept) Racing Tips 32RED CASINO/IRISH EBF MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

Seems an unending day so I'm not going to write much here. Eleven two-year-olds take part: colts/gelding bar two fillies. Most don't look likely but a few well-touted juveniles which should go well. Dark Shot sets the standard on form and a determined colt. Balding's youngsters have been poor on debut but running well with experience on side. Must have fair claims of winning. 

Zhui Feng was half fancied on debut for Amanda Perrett against the above mentioned but looked very ring rusty and a slow start pretty much put pay to any hope thereafter. The stable have been quiet with the two-year-olds and it is wasn't for the fact this very expensive buy [340.000GNS] had a string of flashy Group entries I may not take much notice. It could well be the case he needed the run and better will be seen this second start. Considering Dark Shot beat him well on debut the price will be much bigger. This is related to the comparison theory within psychology. I can't go into that this moment else I might go bonkers myself but it details that the lesser fancied of a past result is often over priced. With odds of 16/1 this horse will either look an inspired wager or people will be spouting on how has already been beaten so what chance did it have this time? As you can imagine, I don't particularly care what people think about two-year-old racing because long term I know best. An interesting colt.  

Saeed Bin Suroor does well at this course and Silent Attack is worthy of note. This son of Dream Ahead was a Breeze-up purchase for 150,000GNS. He has been given a couple of Stakes race entries of late which suggests the Godolphin team feel he will not be a maiden too long.

Marsha is relatively short priced for one of Sir Mark Prescott's debutantes - they are either very fancied in the betting or huge odds with little hope. If priced 13/2 & less it would be a significant betting guide. May well drift like a barge and if unfaniced by the off best watched. 

Conclusion: Dark Shot sets the form and a decent chance of winning. Silent Attack is likely to be a danger and I'd be surprised if he doesn't have ability. Zhui Feng is a speculative bet if you fancy a dabble at big odds. 16/1+ may offer some value and could well be huge prices on exchanges. These type of bets are all or nothing. Interesting colt who is worth a second chance. Marsha is worthy of note if priced 13/2 & less.