Monday 14 September 2015

2:20 Yarmouth Racing Tips (15th Sept) BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f 3y on good to firm going. Ten fillies take part: five with race experience the rest making their debut. A few interesting juveniles to note in a fairly competitive heat. 

Fourth Way, trained by Roger Varian, wasn't fancied on debut over course and distance but really found her stride in the final furlong to give favourite backers a slight scare when finishing second to Alqubbah, who had shown a decent level of form for Ed Dunlop. 

This bay filly, a daughter of Iffraaj, cost £78,000 at the yearling sales, purchased by David Redvers. She now runs in the silks of Qatar Racing Ltd. The mare, Spiritual Air, won over this trip but appreciated further in time. 

There was a lot to like about Fourth Way on debut and she should improve for that initial start. She may be a touch outpaced mid race but should rattle home with spirit. For in-running punters, you may get better odds in play. 

The horse to beat. 

Field Of Stars is trained by William Haggas and takes this maiden in favour of yesterday's Wolverhampton declaration to run with her stablemate Symposium. Connections chose to withdrawn her to take this engagement.

This home bred daughter of Acclamation is out of a winning mare and races in the familiar silks of Lael Stable, no stranger to talented thoroughbreds. 

This January foal was a well-backed favourite on debut at Nottingham over 5f on good to soft going. She was slightly checked when leaving the stalls, crossed by an opponent, which left her with a stiff task. 

Physically a good-looking type, compact with strength. I was left with the impression nothing  went right that day. She plugged on in the closing stages without ever being competitive.This extra furlong should see a marked improvement and return a wiser horse today. Although lacking in flashy Group entries it is a positive she was so strongly fancied on debut. From a statistical point of view, this bay filly holds good win and place claims. If available at each way prices - fair bet. If a particularly weak in the betting and priced outside 13/2 SP I would take a watching brief. [With favourite being such a short price I would stretch this betting to an SP of 8/1].

Two other form horses are worthy of interest. 

Henry Candy has been in great form this season and true professional with his two-year-olds. 

Rosie Royce is a home bred daughter of Acclamation out of a talented Italian mare who won at Listed class and placed at Group level. 

She has raced over the minimum trip on both starts to date and been relatively fancied in the betting.

This bay filly had no luck on debut, stuck behind a wall of horses, and allowed to coast home in her own time. 

She was quite weak in the betting when making her return at Chepstow. 

From a statistical point of view she held strong win and place claims that day, when finishing third in a seven-runner race. In some respects that seemed a slightly disappointing effort although it is worth noting that the first two fillies, Little Voice and Sirajiah, are both held in high regard by their respective trainers. Both of those horses had proven a touch disappointing so it could be the case they ran to their best that day. 

Rosie Royce was reported to be keen but on reviewing the video she looked beaten fair and square. Whether this step up in distance will bring about improvement is a matter for debate. She wouldn't want to pull today when the major fancies will be finishing with verve. Time may tell that was a decent performance at Chepstow although it is difficult to make an objective assessment in ways. 

Little Voice wasn't disgraced when stepped up to Listed class on her next start and Sirajiah is held in some regard by connections. Rosie Royce could be one for each way backer at respectable odds. 

Gay Kelleway does well at this seaside course. Sakhee's Gem is the most experienced in this field with five runs and far from disgraced: only out of the first four on one occasion and then not beaten far in a Listed race at York. This daughter of Sakhee's Secret finished fourth in a competitive maiden at Newmarket when stepping up to 6f.

With a number of promising efforts she has the profile of a horse with enough ability to win an average maiden but liable to be beaten by a juvenile with a touch of class. An official rating of just 70 suggests one or two will be too good unless the race falls apart. In addition, there is concern a horse may regress after a number of tough races. 

Lady Lloyd wasn't fancied for William Jarvis on debut at Windsor and showed limited ability after dwelling at the start. The trainer does well at this course but unless seriously backed [15/2 & less SP] I would take a watching brief.     

Of the debutantes, Daring Day was quite an expensive yearling buy at 60,000GNS. George Peckham is a rookie trainer so difficult to assess his general standard to date with few two-year-old runners. Owner Fawzi Abdullah Nass is no stranger to talented horses and although I would take a watching brief, this debutantes should be respected later in the season.

George Margarson has been quiet with his juveniles this season and Tifawt has the blinkers applied for her debut. Best watched.

James Toller has very few two-year-olds but the stable is worth noting when bringing a youngster to Yarmouth. Sole Bay Star is a daughter of Dutch Art costing just £15,000 at the Breeze-up sales. The betting is the best guide here. If unfancied best watched but if starting 14/1 & less SP could have ability. 

The betting is key for Rae Guest's two fillies. Khismet is an American bred daughter of Kheleyf, a bargain buy at foal for just 3,500GNS. This filly was sent to the Breeze-up sales but withdrawn and staying with connections. 

Mayberain is a home bred daughter of Acclamation although interestingly sent through the sales for 72,000EUR.    

I'm a big fan of Rae Guest and if either of these debutantes were priced 10/1 & less SP it could be significant. 

Conclusion: At intriguing race. Fourth Way sets the standard on form and looks the type to improve a good deal for that debut over course and distance. The winner of that race is a decent juvenile and Varian's charge could well be better. It will be interesting to see if she is slightly flat footed mid race but a horse I would expect to fly at the finish and take some beating. Not than much value priced 1/2 favourite but the horse to beat. 

Field Of Stars needs to improve for her debut but it seems likely to do just that. This step up in distance will help and that first start should brush the cobwebs away. If available at each way odds would make a fair each way selection with stats to suggest a good win and place strike rate. 

Rosie Royce has been priced to go well on both starts. Little could be gleaned from debut and finishing third to two highly touted juveniles may not be too bad at all. There is a chance she didn't run her race last start and if improving would be a serious contender. I can't quite get to grips with this horse but respect the stable. 

Sakhee's Gem has ability but will most likely be held by a couple. 

The betting is key of the rest. If Sole Bay Star was backed to 14/1 or less she could have each way claims. 

Khimet & Mayberain would be very interesting if priced 10/1 & less. That would suggest decent win and place claims.

Fourth Way gets the nod although the price seems very short. Field Of Stars could make a viable each way bet. Keep an eye on the betting for the rest of the field, especially debutantes . The favourite looks hard to beat but Field Of Stars and Rosie Royce could be fair each way bets at decent odds.