Monday 7 September 2015

2:00 Leicester Racing Tips (8th Sept) BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF APOLLO MAIDEN STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (Div I) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 7f on good going. A sizable field of colts and geldings. Muntazah looked a touch disappointing when beaten favourite on his second start, especially when very unlucky not to win on debut. That fifth place, although only beaten less than three lengths, did seem a little disappointing at first but the form of that contest has been franked. Barry Hills' son of Dubawi is a good-looking colt and after a lay off will be making a return with high hopes of winning. The price may be a touch skinny [11/10, Monday evening] and there are horses of interest in opposition. A number of flashy Group entries indicate this bay has ample ability and the horse to beat.

Charlie Appleby has a number of talented juveniles in his string and Chess Master, well, if price translate to ability, this son of Shamardal will shine - all 1,700,000GNS. An incredible sum. The mare was a talent for trainer Geoff Wragg [Cassandra Go] winning at Group 2 and placed at Group 1 when runner-up to Mozart in the July Cup at Newmarket. A couple of Group entries add to the credence that Chess Master has been making the right moves on the gallops. Appleby has a decent strike race at this course and definitely a horse to respect and probably fear if lumping on the favourite at short odds. 

Hammer Gun is owned by Her Majesty The Queen, trained by Sir Michael Stoute. The stable can win on debut but the price is the best guide. Very few of their debutantes win when priced over 13/2. The stable is represented by Star Ship, who has recently received a Stakes entry, which is a sign of confidence. The betting suggests this chestnut son of Raven's Past is second string. It wouldn't be a surprise to see this colt backed. However, I wouldn't expect a winning performance unless in his best betting guide. 

Another debutante who may have a hope is William Muir's Royal Reserve. In general, I wouldn't hold my breath for one of their juveniles to strike on their racecourse bow and I'm far from confident this son of Duke Of Marmalade will be any different. The hope is that this bay colt holds an entry for the Racing post Trophy Group 1. They had another entrant of this race at the weekend, which came last, so it does temper enthusiasm, although that most probably disappointed. At odds of 25/1 there may be some meat on the bone for a speculative bet. 

Conclusion: This looks a contest of two major hopes: Muntazah and the bank busting Chess Master. The former has experience on side and form to set a standard which most debutantes would find difficult to depose. Chess Master is clearly a blue blood and could, as the cliches go, ''be anything''. If seriously backed it would give more confidence but a weakness would suggest the favourite is expected. The market is the best guide for the Sir Michael Stoute pair. By the start of the race the market may detail Star Ship is better. However, unless they are 13/2 & less SP I wouldn't be betting. Royal Reserve may be worth a speculative each-way punt if drifting to incredible odds on the exchanges.Could be backed near the off.   

2:30 Leicester - Not too much time to write a great deal here but interesting to see if David Lanigan's Wapping can show ability after a lackluster display on debut when backed to 7/2. I must admit this trainer doesn't inspire confidence but many juveniles disappoint on debut so it doesn't pay to think a horse can so easily be assess by form alone. In fact, the worse many two-year-olds look on debut the better they seem to be long term. He has received a Group entry and most recently a Stakes entry which suggest this horse has some ability. Again, if touching big odds on the exchanges may be worth a flutter with a view the money may come and make a decent no-lose bet. 

5:05 Leicester - Sepal was made favourite on debut for Charles Hills and far from disgraced. If this filly is priced 13/2 & less SP has very good win and place claims.