The King George VI chase at Kempton
Park on Boxing Day is the racing highlight of the Christmas National
Hunt calendar. Racegoers will flock in their thousands to the
south-west London track to revel in the Christmas spirit – and hope
to back a few winners along the way!
There has been many fine champions of
this prestigious race - most notably - Kauto Star, who racked up an
incredible five King George victories in his stellar career.
Silviniaco Conti is the current King
George market leader but how significant is this festive
showpiece race in regard to the blue riband Cheltenham Gold Cup? Here
we will look into the recent results of the Boxing Day spectacle, and
see how those outcomes reflect towards the March festival.
Favourites’ race
In recent seasons, the King
George has been a safe haven for favourite backers as eight of
the last twelve renewals of the great race have been won by the
jolly. Edredon Bleu sprang a 25/1 shock back in 2003, but this race
is likely - according to statistics - to be won by a horse that is at
the head of the market. It must be said that three of the last four
renewals have been won by a non-favourite to redress the balance –
but those three recent winners have all returned at odds of no bigger
than 9/2.
Age no barrier
Most age trends to a specific race tend
to congregate around a certain bracket, but that cannot be said for
the King George. Three six-year old winners, Kicking King (2004),
Kauto
Star (2006) and Long Run (2010) have all proven that youth can
conquer experience in the race. It could be argued that Long Run was
effectively a five-year old as the 2010 renewal was actually run in
January 2011 due to bad weather over the festive period.
The three mentioned above also won the
race as seven-year olds, together with Best Mate (2002) and
Silviniaco Conti from last season. Kauto Star (2008-2009) is the only
eight, and nine-year old winner in the last twelve runnings, while
Edredon Bleu and Kauto Star yet again in 2011, proved that age was no
barrier by entering the winners’ enclosure at aged 11.
Experience is key
Other notable statistics are that nine
French bred horses have passed the post in first place in the last 12
years, while the other three winners are Irish bred. Every winner of
the King George during that twelve year period has also won a Grade
One chase previously, which can be classed as a negative sign for the
inexperienced Champagne
Fever.
Tough task
So, how does all
this information work towards the Cheltenham Gold Cup? From 1990
onwards, there have been just four horses who won the King George,
and then went on and claimed the Gold Cup in March. Best Mate (2003),
Kicking King (2005), Kauto Star (2007, 2009) and most latterly Long
Run in 2011, all completed the seasonal double. That quintet are
arguably the four finest staying chasers in recent history, which
proves the thought of winning both titles in the same season is a
very tough task that only the finest equine talent have achieved.
Conclusion
If you are looking for the winner of
the King George, then the sensible option is to look towards an
experienced horse, who has already won at Grade One level – and is
relatively short in the betting. Form tends to hold up year on year
in the race, so Silviniaco Conti must have excellent claims to return
to the winners’ enclosure once again. However, if the Paul Nicholls
trained gelding was to triumph at Kempton this Christmas, is he
capable of winning the Gold Cup as well? I’ll leave that decision
up to you.