Wednesday 3 July 2013

2:10 Yarmouth (4th July) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f 3y on good to firm ground.  Nine two-year-olds take part - all colts bar a solitary filly - the majority lightly raced. By all accounts a few talented juveniles are searching for their first win.

An enthralling race.

Noel Quinlan knows a decent horse and connections must have been pretty certain Speedfiend had his share of ability when well backed on debut at Newmarket. That 6f event not only saw a sizeable field but a strong contest where the form has been franked. This son of Bahamian Bounty is out of a winning mare who competed up to Listed class. A 40,000gns yearling purchase, he wasn't best away from the stalls on debut and then found trouble in running, which had him playing catch up. To finish seventh, beaten five lengths by the likes of Jallota, was a creditable performance and there could well be improvement to come. The form of that racecourse bow must give him claims today. This youngster has a fighting chance but I wonder if there is much value if starting at relatively short odds with perhaps one or two of the form horses fair each way value. 

Major Crispies is a big son of Pastoral Pursuits - a brute of a horse. James Eustace's colt has an action which suggests he would appreciate better ground. He ran a tremendous first start over 6f at Leicester on good ground. That was a tough race and the first two will be competing at Group level before long. The form of that race has been franked although this youngster was given a pretty hard race to snatch third place on the line. This April foal showed a similarly determined attitude at Salisbury where a wide draw made his life difficult. However, he was pushed into contention and would have gone close if not for being hampered in the closing stages by an errant favourite. Major Crispies, himself, ran far from a straight line and his wandering may have been due to the faster ground conditions. He looks the type to take some time to get into full stride but does run to the line. On form this 26,000gns yearling buy looks very similar to Marco Botti's Meaning Of Life, through a line with Lanark. That form is sound and of a winning level to take an average maiden. 

Meaning Of Life is a good-looking colt, sired by Exceed And Excel. He looked to need the run on debut when racing over the minimum trip against a couple of talented juveniles. This bay colt was keen when stepping up to 6f at Kempton, settling when gaining cover, although showing signs of inexperience on the turn. The leaders held a length or two advantage but I was left with the impression he had more to give. Probably the most enticing aspect about this youngster is that Botti's two-year-olds improve in a progressive manner and most run their best race third start. He has a fine record at this course and although this is a stiff test he could have each way claims and a fighting chance of the win.

The other form horses Mappa Mundi is likely to improve for this step up in distance but needs to show more. If substantially backed it would give greater hope although I would take a watching brief.

Barbary didn't achieve a great deal on debut but James Fanshawe's two-year-olds can improve markedly on their second start. The betting is key. If backed to 13/2 & less has strong each way claims. 

Bahamian Heights is held in some regard by Clive Brittain. They considered sending this colt to Royal Ascot for the Coventry Stakes (Group 2). He showed more promise when stepped up to 7f. A difficult horse to assess over this shorter trip although he didn't have the best passage when racing over this distance at Haydock. Best to take a watching brief although Brittain is a trainer who never says no.

Of the debutantes, Island Redeme is the only filly in the field. Ed Dunlop's two-year-olds can win if fancied on their racecourse bow but if weak in the betting best watched. 

Mathematics hails from a stable which can unveil a class juvenile and should be respected. Considering about half of all their two-year-old debutantes are priced 13/2 & less the betting doesn't give too much away. This son of Exceed And Excel will need to be pretty smart to beat the form horses and I would take a watching brief.

Conclusion: A stiff race where Major Crispies, Speedfiend & Meaning Of Life could well battle to the line. Each has shown ability. Major Crispies has been raced pretty hard on both starts to date but looks a tough customer. This fast ground might not be ideal and he wouldn't want to be wandering under pressure. Eustace has a good record at this course and this colt is likely to put in a bold show. Meaning Of Life has a similar level of form but could be better value if touching fair each way prices. Botti seems to have the knack of priming his juveniles to win on their third start and this is one of the reasons why this colt appeals. Speedfiend is held in some regard by the Quinlan stable and deserves respect. All three horses have each way claims but such a competitive heat would mean short odds wouldn't tempt. The betting is the best guide to the others and particularly important for Barbary. If priced 13/2 & less I would expect a big run. A tricky race to be dogmatic about as there could be four or five with a live chance. If the price allow I would have a small each way bet on Meaning Of Life.