Monday 10 June 2013

2:00 Salisbury (11th June) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Auction Stakes (Div I) over 6f on good to firm ground. Ten two-year-olds take part, seven raced, the majority of the field colts. A difficult race to assess with a number of progressive types who could leave past form behind them. 

Emperor's Hope sets the standard after a promising debut effort at Kempton. Richard Hannon's filly - a daughter of Holy Roman Emperor out of a Group-class mare - was sent off favourite on her first start and by all accounts a touch unlucky. That day, a wide draw caused problems and being checked after the first few strides made it next to an impossible task, although running wide and hanging she still finishing with purpose. The form of that debut is fair and Emperor's Hope looks likely to improve a good deal. 

A number of the once-raced two-year-olds are likely to progress, some substantially, although they are difficult to assess. The betting could be crucial in appreciating if today is the day.

Double Point, trained by Paul Cole, is a strong chestnut colt, sired by Iffraaj, and 20,000gns yearling. He was priced as though in need of the run on debut and although never challenging for the lead wasn't far afield. For any horse to start its career at Goodwood is a positive and I would expect ample improvement. However, the betting will be the best guide to his chances. If priced 13/2 & less, this colt has each way claims.

Another horse with a similar profile is Killing Time. This gelding, a son of Oratorio, was a relatively cheap purchase at the breeze-up sales for 16,000gns. It is worth noting this youngster is owned by Kennet Valley Thoroughbreds. They are very good at buying juveniles which they syndicate. The majority win and a good few are talents. This bay gelding was relatively fancied in the betting on debut. However, Ralph Beckett when interviewed on ATR, seemed adamant it wouldn't be his day. The form of that race is fair but I was left with the impression second start would see a much different prospect. The stable go well at this course and if fancied in the betting would have respectable win and place claims. 

Seaham has been fancied in the betting on his last two starts. His third at Warwick looks a capable effort but his fifth at this course last time looked a touch disappointing. However, it might just be the case that Millman's horse simply ran his race at this course. Stepping up in distance could be a positive but there are question marks.

Rural Affair was a cheap yearling buy at 5,500gns. This bay filly was a February foal out of a mare won on debut over 7f . Harry Dunlop doesn't feature the best strike rate with his debutantes although he does have the odd surprise package. Probably best watched.

One horse which may go well at a price could be Mr Childrey. Stan Moore is a gifted trainer with his juveniles, who often improve markedly for their first start. This good-looking gelding showed next to no ability on debut when racing over 5f in soft ground. The betting suggested little was expected although with such a time on the sidelines it could be the case he suffered a slight setback. This bay was originally entered to run in the Brocklesby but withdrawn. However, this entry has often been a positive for the stable and indicator to some of their better two-year-olds. If touching speculative odds he could hit the frame.

Money for Choral Clan or Solo Hunter would bring confidence. 

Jonathan Portman won this race last year but Connaught Water needs to progress markedly, while Astral Rose looks held by Killing Time.

Conclusion: A tricky race and the betting will be a guide for most. Emperor's Hope is a well-bred juvenile for this race type. She has to compete against a number of colts, which is never an easy task. However, she fairly flew home at Kempton and will be much wiser today. If prices allow, a decent each way bet. Double Point & Killing Time are intriguing juveniles simply because they both needed their first runs but showed promise. Both trainers have respectable win rates with their fancied runners on their second start and if priced 13/2 & less (SP) they have win and place claims. Seaham has an ounce of ability but has a question mark or two and I would take a watching brief. Mr Childrey looks pretty poor on his first effort but could be something of a dark horse and if touching speculative prices may be an each way punt.  

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