Wednesday 22 May 2013

2:00 Goodwood (23rd May) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 6f on good ground. Last year, this race was won by Sky Lantern, trained by Richard Hannon, who went on to victory in the 1,000 Guineas. Nine juveniles contest this race: three with form and a mix of debutantes from leading stables. 

Kiyoshi will take a lot of beating.

Charles Hills has had a slow start to the two-year-old season. However, this Irish-bred daughter of Dubawi is out of a Listed-placed mare. Qatar Racing Limited [owners] usually buy winning juveniles but this could well prove a superb yearling buy at 80,000gns. This strapping bay filly started her career at Newmarket, a maiden which has been franked by numerous winners. This youngster is held in high regard and I would be amazed if connections don't have Royal Ascot penciled into their schedule. Kiyoshi showed signs of inexperience on debut but finished the race with real vim. This step up to 6f will be a plus and a high draw looks appealing, especially with one of the major fancies poorly birthed. Kiyoshi is the horse to beat.

As detailed above, Richard Hannon fielded Sky Lantern, a true talent, to make a winning start to her career. The stable have always sent some of their leading lights to this course and it is not beyond the realms one of their two representatives will shine.

I often find Hannon's debutantes difficult to assess and this will be made no easy task with Kiyoshi being favourite, which slightly skews the price of Mildenhall & Royal Connection. 

A wide draw for Mildenhall is not favourable and newcomers often run into space. If losing valuable ground it would make life very difficult. This daughter of Compton place needs to be fit and wise. 

Royal Connection is slightly better draw and purchased at the yearling sales by Peter & Ross Doyle, who paid £30,000. This early foal is out of a mare who enjoyed a trip and may appreciate a test of stamina in time. 

Movie Magic was very slow away from the stalls on debut and needs to find substantial improvement.

Memory Styx has raced five times and a fair juvenile, certainly capable of winning most maidens. She is a determined sort who will make that race experience count against many of the debutantes. However, the likes of Kiyoshi look too strong. One with each ways claims but may need the favourite to disappoint to taste victory.

Of the debutantes, *Kendal Mint hails from Clive Cox's stable, who not only has a fair record at this course, but a talented filly at home in the shape of Beldale Memory. The betting is key to this youngster's chance. If priced 13/2 & less it could be a positive. 

Chesturo is another who is best assessed by the market. Very few of Mick Channon's juveniles win when priced over 8/1. However, this is a course he often sends a decent two-year-old. 

Ihtimal is trained by Saeed Bin Suroor who never lacks for talented horses. This daughter of Shamardal is bred to enjoy a stiffer trip although well drawn. 

Conclusion: Kiyoshi really caught my eye on debut for both performance and physical stature. She is a beautiful filly who will improve for that first start. A prime draw and step up in distance will make this very hard work for the newcomers. It will take something special to beat this juvenile and for a debutante to lower her colours it seems unlikely. The betting is the best guide to those making their racecourse bow. With a mix of leading trainers it may be foolish to view them negatively. Richard Hannon has a superb record at this course and if one of his pair are leading lights they could go well. However, a wide draw for Mildenhall doesn't inspire confidence and she looks the better bred. Of the others, if priced 13/2 & less it would bring hope. Memory Styx could well hit the frame at speculative odds because she has ability and experience to test most. I expect Kiyoshi to win and head for Royal Ascot.