Sunday 14 April 2013

2:30 Newcastle (15th April) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f on good ground (good to soft in places). Seven two-year-old debutantes take part, two colts against a handful of fillies. This looks out of four horses as three come from stables who feature a poor strike rate with juveniles.

Mark Johnston has sent out a couple of two-year-old winners this season. Pigeon Pie is a home bred filly from Coln valley Stud and part owned by Nicholas Jones who owned the mare. She was trained by Sir Mark Prescott and won both starts over 6f at two before being retired to stud. The sire, Bahamian Bounty, was lightly race but a talented horse, for Godolphin. The stable have a fair win rate at the course although I find them difficult to assess. Johnston's debutantes often leave a lot to be desired with slow starts or inexperience. Their youngster can win on debut, especially when short-priced favourite. However, I would rather watch and learn than put my hand in my pocket.

Middleham Park Racing achieve an enviable standard with their two-year-olds, who are placed with a number of talented trainers. They field two horses with Richard Fahey & Bryan Smart respectively. 

Princess Pheeny is a daughter of Tagula and a cheap yearling purchase at £6,000. The mare won but needed a trip. The Fahey stable are yet to send out a juvenile winner but they feature superb statistics with newcomers. The most interesting runner.

As far as racing silks go, Lexington Rose is second string, trained by Bryan Smart. He is excellent with two-year-olds although last year was surprisingly average. This bay filly was purchased by Middleham Park for £15,000 at the yearling sales. She is entered for a number of big sales races so connections will be hoping she has ability. Bryan Smart can win with his debutantes although his statistics are not as impressive as pundits' proclaim. He features about 10% strike. On the positive side, his early horses are often better prospects. 

One horse which catches the eye is Keith Dalgleish's Robynelle. The main reason for my enthusiasm is that this daughter of Royal Applause was entered to run in the Brocklesby Stakes but bypassed that engagement. The stable had success a couple of years back with Stonefield Flyer. If substantially backed it would be a positive.

Geniusinrhyme, Spring Willow & Hebridean Princess are best watched.

Conclusion: Some races appeal as betting mediums while others don't and I must admit this race falls into the latter category. I would be surprised if one of the major four doesn't win but each has their weakness. On statistics Princess Pheeny ticks the boxes although the mare needed a trip and I just wonder if a stiffer test of stamina would be a plus. Mark Johnston is difficult to assess and Bryan Smart, although capable of winning with debutantes, does much better with horses on their second start. I'm intrigued to see what Robynelle can achieve and money would give more confidence. I would definitely take a watching brief on this race.   

Other 2yo races:

2:10 Redcar
2:20 Windsor
2:40 Redcar