Friday 5 April 2013

2:20 Leicester (Friday 5th April) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Stake over 5f 2y on good to soft ground. Seven two-year-olds compete, six colts, one filly, two horses with race experience. Mick Channon had great success last year with Sixties Icon who made his name as a sire of versatile offspring. 

Scargill was set a stiff task on debut when competing at Musselburgh. Mick's Yer Man won this stakes race after taking the Brocklesby in good style. Scargill was weak in the betting, which suggested he needed the run. I have little doubt the stable had few expectations that day. After a tardy start and showing sign of inexperience, this bay colt ran on with promise. The stable's juveniles can show marked improvement on their second start. The third horse, In tense Feeling, has since won a selling race. I would expect ample improvement. With only two places for each way backers, it slightly tempers enthusiasm although from a statistical point of view this horse has a leading chance. Clearly his fortunes rest very much dependent on the debutantes of which a couple could well prove dangers.

Richard Hannon fields his first two-year-old of the season. Beau Nash, an Irish bred son of Dandy Man, was purchase by Peter & Ross Doyle for £25,000 at the yearling sales. The stable have a good strike rate at this course. They have such a wealth of juveniles that if this youngster has ability it will win. If priced around 6/4f I would expect to see a bold performance.

Peterkin is a home bred son of Invincible Spirit out of a once-raced mare. It is difficult to assess Mark Johnston's debutantes because his two-year-old are either easier winners or poor losers, often at short prices. However, Leicester is a course they feature a healthy points profit and a recent stakes race entry suggests this colt has ability. I would rather take a watching brief.

Of the other debutantes, Cockney Bob is a very cheap yearling purchase at £500 for Stan Moore. This son of Cockney Rebel is out of a mare who won on debut and raced over fifty times. The stable have debut winners at a variety prices although I would take a watching brief.

Master Carpenter is a relatively expensive yearling purchase at £25,000. This chestnut colt is sired by a class horse [Mastercraftsman]. The mare didn't race until three and needed a trip so it is possible 6f would be more appealing. The major negative is that the stable struggle to win with their debutantes although James Millman has been quoted as saying it is their intention to have their two-year-old sharper this season. However, they are usually much better on their second start and likely to need the run.

Bill Turner has shown mixed form with his juveniles this season. Mick's Yer Man looks a fair two-year-old with two stakes wins under his belt but a few of their other runners have disappointed. Posh Bounty is the only filly in the field which could pose a problem against bigger stronger colts. In general, the stable do not feature as good strike rate on debut as people imagine. I would have to take a watching brief.

Last but not least is Smuggler's Gold, trained by David Evans. This is a fair-looking gelding who was sent off 3/1f when making his debut at Lingfield. The form of that race has been franked but this son of Majestic Missile wasn't ever competitive. He looked clueless and needs to be transformed from first to second start to figure here. It isn't beyond the realms he has ability because Evans had him entered to run in the Brocklesby, which is a positive sign. There must have been something about this gelding to start favourite on his racecourse bow so it may be foolish to consider this horse has no chance. If touching huge odds on the exchanges he may be worth a speculative bet because the money may come once more. Two-year-olds can improve beyond recognition from first to second start and even though you have to take a leap of faith stranger things have happened.

Conclusion: A difficult race to assess and the fact there are only seven runners makes an each way bet all the more frustrating. Scargill could improve markedly although he needs to be wiser for that start. Channon has a decent strike rate with juveniles on their second start and I an see this colt going well. Beau Nash could prove the main danger. The first two-year-old runner of the season for Richard Hannon. The shorter the price the greater the chance. Peterkin could go well but the stable are next to impossible to assess with their debutantes. In general, their better two-year-olds appear at the start of May. Cockney Bob, Master Carpenter & Posh Bounty are best watched. Smuggler's Gold looks hopeless but could improve and just might be worth a small wager at huge odds in the hope he is substantially backed.