Friday 26 April 2013

1:50 Ripon (27th April) Free Racing Tips

A Maiden Auction Fillies' Stakes over 5f on good ground. Thirteen two-year-olds take part,  eight with race experience.  A mix of juveniles from leading trainers and to some extent open-ended form lines. A fascinating race.

Hello Beautiful makes a quick appearance after making her debut at Pontefract less than a week ago. This daughter of Captain Rio looks an athletic type who knew her job after being quite well backed. Ann Duffield does well at this course and recent Stake entry indicates they expect a win sooner rather than later. Mops Angel is a fair horse so it wasn't any disgrace to finish second. She has fair claims but assessing the pecking order of form horses this early in the season is no easy task.

On form, Atlantic Affair holds Memory Styx on their Beverley contest. Mark Johnston's two-year-olds are forward this season and a number have won or shown potential. This daughter of Clodovil is a good-looking grey who has size and scope. She wasn't the most expensive but she looked well in her coat, showing good pace until tiring in the final furlong. In ways, her finishing position - especially lengths beaten - was a disappointment. It's possible she went a stride to fast or needed the run. There is little doubt improvement is needed. At this time, it is difficult to get a handle on that form, which brings question marks. However, this youngster has the physique to make most of these look inferior.

Bryan Smart is a fantastic trainer of two-year-olds and Lexington Rose will be primed for a big run today. This bay filly was relatively fancied at Newcastle and held every chance to be outpointed in the final furlong. Ffrench [jockey] rode as if this daughter of Captain Gerrard was fitter than not but without giving a hard introduction. The second horse, Princess Pheeny, has been entered for an Ascot Stakes race, which could boost the form, while the fourth has been noted as a fair horse. A wide draw may be a slight negative, unless they split in two groups, but experience is a plus. Smart doesn't hold back with juveniles on their second start and if priced 13/2 & less I would be surprised if she isn't placed. Although racing in the second colours of Middleham Park, this shouldn't detract.

The first colours are carried by Ventura Mist, trained by Tim Easterby. Her handler fielded two juveniles over course and distance last time out and this February foal beat her stablemate who was more fancied in the betting. Easterby has a fantastic strike rate in that race but in ways both horses didn't quite live up to expectation. This daughter of Pastoral Pursuits is a good looker and could improve a length or two after playing catch up. Blithe Spirit won quite comfortably but the form may have some weakness. However, if fancied in the betting she could have claims. 

Tim Walford doesn't train many two-year-olds but Lorimer's Lot ran well on debut and put up a much better performance that her 33/1 odds suggested. This daughter of Camacho was professional and given a determined ride but beaten at the line. From a high draw, she could well try to dictate. On balance, I would take a watching brief simply because that was quite a restricted race type and the second has been beaten.

The last of the form horses is Rough Courte, who is trained by Mick Channon. This little filly is a difficult horse to assess in ways because she has been entered for a Selling race, which to some extent is a negative. However, the form of that first start has been franked. This bay filly was quite well fancied at Newmarket next start but looked to disappoint. However, that could well be a strong race and a low draw wasn't the best part of the course. If touching speculative odds on the exchanges there could be worse bets. An outsider with a chance.

Of the debutantes, two trainers stand out Richard Fahey & Kevin Ryan. Both can send out winners on their racecourse bow.

Woodland Girl is trained by Richard Fahey and not best drawn, unless her jockey takes the bold move to race far rail. The betting is the best guide. If priced 13/2 & less she could have win and place claims. I would take a watching brief chiefly because of the draw.

Shamouti could go well if priced in single figures but once again has to be pretty smart to win this at the first time of asking. It would be a positive sign if substantially backed.

The others are best watched.

Conclusion: A number of form horses take their chance here and it will take a fair debutante to lower their flag. Hello Beautiful ran well on debut and must run a fair race here. Duffield has a good record at this course and this filly shouldn't have a problem sitting up with the pace. Fair each way claims if prices allow. Lexington Rose showed up well on debut at Newcastle. The betting is key. If priced 13/2 & less I would be surprised if she isn't placed at least. It is difficult to assess Atlantic Affair. Mark Johnston's filly needs to improve a few lengths which is a negative before she starts. On the plus side she is well drawn and has size and scope to progress with racing. Rough Courte gives conflicting messages with the Selling entry but fair debut effort. Channon's youngster could be better than her last effort and if touching speculative odds could run well. Hello Beautiful and Lexington Rose make most appeal. The latter especially so if fancied in the betting.