1.30
– William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle
My
Tent or Yours is clearly a worthy favourite in this and could be very
good indeed. He's absolutely miles clear on Timeform ratings
(significantly more than Sprinter Sacre against his rivals in the
Queen Mother at 1/4). You could therefore argue that 7/4 is a decent
price. The difference here is, of course, that this race has a number
of unexposed horses running who could be as good or even better than
My Tent or Yours. If you have a look at the horses that have run in
this race in recent years you'll see some very smart horses have
taken part and not won. Horses like Sprinter Sacre, Darlan and Oscar
Whiskey. You'll notice they were also all trained by Nicky Henderson.
It would be very unusual if there wasn't a horse or two in this able
to challenge My Tent or Yours and as this is the first race of the
festival it's best not to get too involved. The Irish challenge this
year looks particularly strong and they've won five out of the last
ten renewals. Jezki has won two Grade 1's and has a good chance but I
prefer the chances of Un Atout at a bigger price of 7/1. He's
absolutely hacked up in two races this season and whilst these races
were of lower quality he beat Art of Logistics easily who came out
and beat Waaheb next time. You shouldn't read too much into
collateral form but it does put him well up there with Jezki. Dodging
Bullets deserves a mention; beaten 7 lengths by Darlan last time and
previously beating River Maigue giving weight away are smart
performances. I think he'll run a good race but he looks a little
exposed and it's difficult to see him improving as much as some of
the others. Puffin Billy travels really well in his races but had a
slight tendency to jump out his right in his last race; that won't
help round Cheltenham although it could be because he was carrying an
injury last time. 14/1 is a tempting price. William Hill are paying out 5 places ew.
Un
Atout 1 pt e/w - 7/1 (with William Hill) 4th
Puffin
Billy 1 pt win 14/1 5th
Great couple of selections - both place with William Hill enhanced places
Great couple of selections - both place with William Hill enhanced places
How Do I Use William Hill's C50 Promotion?
2.05 – Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase
This
looks like a two horse race between Simonsig and Overturn. Overturn
was very high class on the flat and over hurdles and won his chases
well. It's fair to say those chases were at a much lower level than
Simonsig who's won a couple of Grade 2's. Simonsig has generally
raced over further and you can argue that Overturn might be too
speedy for him. Simonsig has a high cruising speed and I can see
Overturn setting up the race for him. Overturn will also have soft
ground to contend with which he has avoided for most of his career
(only raced on it four times). Arvika Ligeonniere is a front runner
who jumps to the right and fell last time. He and Overturn will
battle for the lead and Simonsig should cruise past them without too
much trouble. None of the other horses in the race are likely to get
a look in. Ladbrokes are giving you your money back, up
to £25, as a free bet if Simonsig loses. Simonsig is unbeaten in his
last five races and is taken to extend that to six today.
Simonsig
2 pts win - 4/7 1st
Not as easy as we thought, but a solid win after pulling too hard
2.40
– JLT Specialty Steeple Chase (A Handicap)
I
thought Midnight Chase represented a good chance on Good ground but
now the rain has come I'll have to look elsewhere. Fruity O'Rooney
acts on the track, goes on any ground and never runs a bad race. His
mark of 139 is the same as his second here back in January and we
should get a decent run for our money. His price has contracted
somewhat in the last few days but 10/1 is a reasonable price.
Fruity
O'Rooney 1 pt win - 10/1 5th
Ran well after making a terrible mistake.
Ran well after making a terrible mistake.
I would like to thank Sean Kelsey for his superb analysis, the author of this post.