Thursday 11 October 2012

6:20 Kempton (11th October) Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f.

This looks an interesting race.

Nine juveniles, two debutantes. A couple of once-raced performers could be primed today.

Fraserburgh has been a frustrating horse for backers after four creditable runs but losses at short odds. His last defeat at 1/3f in heavy ground at Hamilton would have been a bitter pill to swallow for those who kept the faith. In truth, this son of Shamardal has run well, especially his second to the Group-class Morawij. There is little doubt this colt has ability and time may tell he has simply been unlucky not to have won by now. However, it is a concern that many of his performances are followed by a disappointing review. A horse I would rather watch.

William Haggis is a trainer to respect with two-year-olds on their second start and Mundahesh was quite fancied on his debut at Yarmouth when finishing third. The first first two horses had that race to themselves and improvement will be needed to win today. As with most juveniles, their second start is often the best time to catch a winner. The betting indicates a big run is expected. At the price I would tread careful because there are a couple of runners who could well make more appeal as decent each way prospects.

Exactement catches the eye. Mrs Karl Burke's juveniles are a professional outfit and a stable which I have done very well over the years. This daughter of Speightstown was an expensive breeze-up purchase at 110,000gns. By all accounts the team came out all guns blazing to win on debut. Exceptionally well backed, she looked to have taken the spoils but just held by the late charge of Madam Mojito. We haven't seen this juvenile since late May which is a surprise. There may have been an issue or perhaps connections realised she needed more time. The betting is key to this juvenile. If priced 13/2 & less I would be very surprised if she doesn't hit the frame. If price allows a sterling each way bet.

Another filly who could go well is Blessing Box. This early foal, a daughter of Bahamian Bounty, was quite fancied on debut, which is a rarity for a Chris Wall juvenile. That could well be a significant pointer. Everything happened too quickly that day over the minimum trip but there was promise with some late headway. If this bay filly is backed I would take note. The betting is the best guide to her chances today and if priced 13/2 & less I would expect this two-year-old to be placed with a fighting chance of a win.

Of the others, Tartary is a home bred from Lady Rothschild. Roger Charlton's two-year-olds often improve for the run but they can win on debut. It is never easy for a juvenile to win at the first time of asking. This factor is compounded when running on a turning track because there is an added emphasis on leaving the stalls. A slow start would be difficult to overcome, as would showing signs of inexperience or pushed wide on the bend. Class can prevail. If priced 13/2 & less this bay colt could have claims but I would favour those with experience.

Conclusion: An intriguing race. The betting is key to a number of these juveniles today. Mundahesh is a pretty short price and there should be plenty of improvement on the cards. The Haggis juveniles can be tough nuts to crack when fancied on their second start but at the odds I would have concerns a couple of juveniles may give this colt a something to think about. Fraserburgh is a difficult horse to assess. He has ability but has struggled to get his head in front. I can see this youngster leading and given a determined ride. He could go well at a price but the defeats bring question marks. The two juveniles which I like are Exactement & Blessing Box. The former hails from a professional stable and I can imagine connections expect a win. If this filly is priced 13/2 & less it would be a great each way bet. Similarly Blessing Box could be a dark horse. The betting is of paramount importance here. If strongly fancied I would be very surprised if this filly isn't placed with a fighting chance of the win. Tartary is the most interesting of the debutantes but would have to be pretty smart to win on his racecourse bow. Best watched.