Monday 15 October 2012

3:10 Leicester (16th October) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 7f 9y on good to soft ground.

For a talented juvenile Pythagorean has been a costly horse for punters to follow so far. In truth, this son of Oasis Dream has lost out due to his temperament as much as anything else. That with the fact that he has bumped into a few fair juveniles has seen three place efforts. Perhaps those losses will scare a few punters away but perhaps this will be his day. The key to this youngster is settling. If Baker can sit off the pace and finish with some vigour I would be confident of a big run and sound each way claims. It would be a shame if he is too keen but it is something to consider and factor into his price.

After Richard Hughes' seven-timer at Windsor, it is likely all his rides will be the focus of attention as he sails towards the Jockeys' Championship. *Sea Shanty was made favourite when left trailing behind Pythagorean at Newbury and really needed to have disappointed that day to have any hope of turning the tables on his old adversary. I wouldn't be keen on this juvenile unless substantially backed. If starting a shorter price than Pythagorean it would be a significant pointer.

Sir Michael Stoute's juveniles can be indifferent on debut - some winning while others looking in need of the experience. Hillstar was relatively weak in the betting in what turned out to be a competitive race over 7f at Sandown. This son of Danehill Dancer was much too keen in rear but caught the eye in the closing stages. He may have gone pretty close if not for being slightly hampered in the closing stages. That experience will do him the world of good and the stable have the knack of striking at this course. 

Flashlight has shown promise on both his starts. His second run at Yarmouth is probably the best assessment. This son of Shamardal was an expensive purchase at 135,000eurs. Franny Norton set a fair test that day but this colt was easily out sprinted by the strong finish of Half A Person. It could well be the case the winner had improved a good deal for his first start and capable. However, beyond the winner, you have to question what the rest of the field achieved. Time may tell that was a fair effort but I would have reservations that one or two of these will prove stronger.

With the majority of the field making their debut it will be a tall order for these first timers to beat the likes of Pythagorean et al. The betting is the best guide to their chances. Bredan, PublicSword Of The Lord make most appeal. The first named races in the silks of Lady Rothschild whose horses have been in sparkling form of late. John Gosden is capable of sending out a debut winner but it would take a smart two-year-old to win on their racecourse bow. The other pair look weak on the exchanges [Monday, evening] and they would need to be supported to make appeal. 

Conclusion: I would stick with those with race experience. Sea Shanty needs to have an excuse for last times lengthy hammering by Pythagorean. Unless exceptionally well backed, I would take a watching brief. Pythagorean has been his own worst enemy in ways. His keen tendencies have left him vulnerable at the finish. After three races - the hood in place - it just might be the day he settles. Baker will focus on doing just that but if the horse has other ideas he may be forced to press on. Either way this colt has a level of ability and it would be a disappointment if he wasn't placed. If settling, I would be confident of an each way wager. That is the gamble. Hillstar is likely to start favourite. Sir Michael Stoute's youngster is sure to improve for that initial start and has a good record at the course. He is the main opposition although I would be tempted to back Pythagorean. Flashlight could well set the pace but has something to prove after being outpointed at Yarmouth.