Thursday 4 October 2012

1:00 Yarmouth (5th October) Free Horse Racing Tips

The second division of the Holiday On The Norfolk Broads Maiden Stakes over 7f 3y on heavy ground.

Half A Person caught the eye on debut at Leicester. This bay colt by Holy Roman Emperor cost £35 ,000 at the Doncaster breeze-up sales & nibbled in the the market but still went off an outsider at 18/1. Joseph Barton's two-year-old led with a furlong to go but finished fourth when fading in the closing stages. Considering this youngster was such a big price it could indicate that he may have needed the race. Peter Chapply-Hyam is one of few trainers who truly excel with their debutantes featuring a strike rate which is similar to that of fancied juveniles on their second start. This factor is a rarity for two-year-old trainers who, generally, attain a greater win rate beyond their debut effort. The winner, Penny Rose, has since won at Stakes class, while the second has run creditably when a beaten favourite. On balance this looks a weaker contest and Half A Person should sit handy with that experience on side. If improving a length or two for that initial start, he is the horse to beat. It is worth noting from a statistical angle that Chapple-Hyam features no more than respectable win and place claims with juveniles priced 13/2 & less on their second, which slightly tempers enthusiasm.

Lionheart hails from Luca Cumani's stable, teaming up with apprentice Patrick Hills who deserves more opportunities and a professional rider. This chestnut colt - a son of Zamindar -  has been relatively fancied on all three starts but seems to have fallen just short of what it takes to win at maiden class. His last run at Yarmouth over course and distance was  disappointing and I would favour others.

The majority of the raced juveniles look moderate. In fact, ample improvement is needed to hold any chance. The betting is the best guide to Jodie's GemSweeping Rock on their second start. Both would have fair win and place claims if priced 13/2 & less but both would need to be substantially backed to figure.

Mark Johnston is an infrequent visitor to this seaside venue with mixed results. Flashlight was quite an expensive purchase at 135,000euros but went off relatively unfancied at Beverley on soft ground over 7f. He was green and outpaced, but plugged on in the final furlong although never troubling the leaders. More is needed here and although wiser for that initial start looks to have something to prove. 

One of the most interesting juveniles here is the Roger Varian-trained Putra Eton. This son of Danehill Dancer is a half-brother to Listed winner Pimpernel and a very expensive purchase at 400,000gns. H R H Sultan Ahmad Shah has owned a number of talents, especially with the late Michael Jarvis and this Derby entrant is worthy of respect. Few trainers capture my attention more than Varian, especially with his two-year-old debuatntes. His strike rate with fancied runners is second to none. As with all debutantes, it is never easy to beat experience, talented opposition. The majority of this field do not register but Half A Person will be wiser today and looks a live wire. Putra Eton is likely to be fitter than not and if priced 7/2 & less or substantially backed it would be a sign of confidence.

Conclusion: The majority of the field don't set the greatest of standards and need to find ample improvement. The betting will be the best guide and if any of the once raced juveniles are priced 13/2 & less it would give greater hope. I would be surprised if there is much money for most. This race is most likely to be a duel between Half A Person and the debutant Putra Eton. Peter Chapple-Hyam's horse has the proven form although whether there will be a marked improvement is a matter of opinion. The big price could suggest he wasn't as fit as a fiddle although the trainer's general statistics suggest that most of their debutantes are fit and ready. That is the dilemma. His second time out strike rate is far from impressive which tempers enthusiasm. On the other side of the coin you are always chancing your arm backing debutantes. However, Varian is a master at priming horses for their racecourse bow. Putra Eton is an expensive purchase and related to a talented filly. The betting is probably the best guide and the stronger he is in the betting the more I would consider this juvenile. If priced 7/2 & less he could be the horse to back. A tricky race which looks out of the two favourites. Putra Eton would just get the nod.