Tuesday 11 September 2012

4:00 Carlisle (12th September) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 7f 200y on good to soft ground.

Ten juveniles compete in this second division. All colts bar one filly. One debutante from Mark Johnston's stable. A mixed bag of two-year-olds on show with fair form horses with a few who would struggle running down hill in an egg and spoon race. 

*Orions Hero was sent off favourite for a York maiden but failed miserably. Whether that was due to soft ground is a matter of opinion. However, an expensive yearling purchase at 120,000euros is the kind of price Fahey would expect a win. That was nearly the case when this son of Oasis Dream stepped up in distance at Ayr. It was slightly strange why he went off at such a big price but it didn't hinder a great performance. As it happened, the Sharon Watt debutante got up on the line winning at 50/1. Bee Brave was sold to an American buyer which suggests this race had something going for it. In truth, it was probably no more than an average contest but good enough to suggest Mrs H Steel's youngster has a fighting chance today.

Elusive Thought is a home bred for Mrs Fitri Hay. This gelding was quite well backed on debut at Ripon but showed little ability. May have a glimmer of hope if backed to 13/2 & less but that looks unlikely.

French Revolution, GambinoTobacco need to sprout wings and make up the numbers.

Alkcama is a relatively cheap purchase for John Weymes. This bay gelding, a son of Camacho, wasn't far behind the winner at Newcastle but that looked  a pretty ordinary race.  I hate to say it, but I'm not the biggest fan of the Weyme's two-year-olds as they seem very difficult to judge. Best watched.

Mark Tompkins is represented by Topamichi who was last on debut at Yarmouth. The stable have a poor strike rate with juveniles making their racecourse bow and they can be transformed on their second start. The betting is the best guide. If backed to 13/2 & less would have outstanding win and place claims. 

Miss Mocca showed good pace on debut at Bath when second to easy winner Alcando. The only filly in the field, this bay is going to need to be a game sort to show the boys how it's done. She looks to have good pace and if sustaining that over this extra furlong could be of interest. That wasn't the strongest race on debut but Ian Wood is a canny trainer and his juveniles deserve respect on its second start.

Another trainer worth his salt with juveniles on their second start is Alan Swinbank. Clarandale could be a dark horse of the race because he cost a hefty sum at 130,000gns. This bay colt by Holy Roman Emperor was quite well backed on debut but always struggling. The Swinbank two-year-olds can be rather hit and miss on their first start but worthy of note next time out. There is a chance the soft ground didn't suit on that day, which could be a valid excuse. I can see this horse being backed and a fair each way prospect.

Last but not least is Mark Johnston's debutante Bravo Ragazzo. The betting is the best guide although I find the stable's juveniles next to impossible to assess on their first run. They are either easy winners or big disappointments. Best watched.

Conclusion: A funny old race in ways. Orions Hero sets the standard and could go well although at short odds may not give much value and vulnerable to a horse with a fraction of ability. A few of these making their second start are worthy of consideration, especially if backed. Miss Mocca & Topamichi would be decent each way bets if featuring a 13/2 & less starting price. I would be tempted to take a punt on Alan Swinbank's Clarandale. You have to take a leap of faith but connections paid a significant sum for this breeze-up purchase and it would be a surprise to find it is misplaced. This stable often go very well with juveniles on their second start and could hit the frame at a price.