Tuesday 25 September 2012

1:30 Goodwood (26th September) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 7f on soft ground.

An eight- strong field of lightly experienced juvenile featuring colts and one filly.

Pythagorean is an imposing bay colt by Oasis Dream and trained by Roger Charlton. This juvenile has been fancied on both starts when racing at Newbury over 7f on decent ground. As seen with many of the trainer's youngsters this March foal ruined his chance with a slow start but gave enough encouragement that a maiden should be an easy task. The form of that first race has been franked on a number of occasions. This son of Hypoteneuse looked set for a win on his second start but once again his behaviour could well have added to his defeat. Held up off the pace, pulling much to hard, it was a a tough task to show the ability he did when a narrow loser. The application of the first-time hood suggests that Charlton has concerns. This horse has ability as indicated by a Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) & Racing Post Stakes (Group 1) entry but temperament is always an issue at short odds.

Emulating has run creditably on both starts and a progress type. This son of Duke Of Marmalade comes from a good family where a number of siblings have attained lofty sales prices. With the Hannon/Hughes bandwagon going strong you have to respect the chances of this chestnut although at restricted odds I would rather take a watching brief.

David Simcock is represented by Marju's Quest who runs in the familiar silks of Favourites Racing. This bay colt wasn't fancied on debut when racing off the pace, suggesting this extra furlong will be to his liking. Spencer has a good strike rate for Simcock and if priced 13/2 & less.

Another horse unfancied on debut was Jeremy Noseda's Zamoyski. Susan Roy's  juvenile cost 55,000gns but showed little on debut at Ascot. The betting is the best guide to this son of Dutch Art. If priced 13/2 & less has strong win and place claims.

Strong Conviction has been kept busy this season, for the most part running over five and six furlongs. This chestnut gelding has gone close to winning on a couple of occasions but clearly has his limitations. Channon has run this son of Piccolo over seven furlongs once before when finishing down the field in a handicap. On balance other make more appeal.

On form Codebreaker is held by Pythagorean. This chestnut colt is owned by Thurloe Thoroughbreds who always deserve respect. Hughie Morrison's juveniles rarely show a great deal on debut but their two-year-olds often go on to win in their first season. Looks held but could go better on his second start especially if backed.

ProvencalBe Royal need to improve greatly to have any chance. The former trained by Rod Millman is a home bred out of Compton Place. The stable's juvenile often go well on their second start at speculative odds and may have a glimmer of hope.

Conclusion: Pythagorean catches the eye. A big, strong colt who hails from a trainer who knows his horses. The form of those first two starts indicates a winner in waiting. The only negative is that this youngster has a rather cavalier attitude bordering on headstrong tendencies. The application of the hood could resolve those issues and he should be wiser with race experience. At short odds it always pays to be careful but I would give this colt a leading chance. The horse to beat. Emulating is a difficult horse to assess but a progressive type. At relatively short odds I would take a watching brief. The betting will be the best guide to those once raced juveniles from fashionable stables. Marju's Quest, Zamoyski & Codebreaker would all have each way claims if priced 13/2 & less. If weak in the betting it would reinforce the favourite's credentials.  Provencal hails from a stable who often go well on their second start at speculative odds.